KEY POINTS

• NIPSS forecasts petrol prices may fall to ₦750/litre by December 2025, citing Dangote Refinery’s operations and improved state refinery performance.
• The projection comes two years after subsidy removal spiked prices from ₦200 to over ₦900, with officials claiming neighboring countries benefited from Nigeria’s subsidies.
• While Port Harcourt Refinery’s 110-day operation signals progress, experts caution that global oil markets and forex stability will determine actual price reductions.

Nigerians may soon get relief from soaring fuel prices as the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) predicts petrol could sell for as low as ₦750 per litre before year-end.

This comes after prices skyrocketed to ₦930 following President Bola Tinubu‘s controversial subsidy removal in May 2023.

Channelstv reports that NIPSS Director-General Ayo Omotayo revealed the optimistic projection, citing the imminent full operation of Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitation of state-owned refineries. “With the removal of the first subsidy, we have Dangote Refinery coming on. We have the other refineries. The refinery in Port Harcourt has worked continuously for 110 days,” Omotayo stated.

Fuel refinery boom promises relief 

The DG explained that current hardships would yield long-term benefits: “We’re looking at [fuel prices] coming down as low as ₦750 before the end of the year. And of course, foreign exchange we believe will still drop to about 1.3 [per dollar].” He emphasized Nigeria’s potential to become a net fuel exporter once all refineries become operational.

The subsidy removal had triggered nationwide panic, with prices jumping from below ₦200 to over ₦900 per litre. Omotayo defended the policy as necessary, claiming Nigeria was “on the verge of collapse” under the unsustainable subsidy regime that allegedly benefited neighboring countries. “We were subsidizing fuel as far as Burkina Faso, as far as Sierra Leone in some instances,” he alleged.

Energy analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that the 110-day uninterrupted operation of Port Harcourt Refinery marks significant progress. However, some economists warn that global oil price fluctuations and domestic production challenges could affect the projected price drop.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association (PETROAN) recently hinted at imminent price reductions, while financial analyst Bismarck Rewane corroborated the downward trend prediction. As Nigerians await the promised relief, the government faces pressure to accelerate refinery rehabilitation and stabilize forex rates to realize these projections.