KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped to 1.603 million barrels per day in March 2025, marking the lowest output since January and falling short of OPEC quotas.
• The decline coincides with political unrest in Rivers State following President Tinubu’s controversial appointment of a sole administrator, sparking protests in the oil-rich region.
• Energy analysts warn that continued instability, combined with existing challenges like pipeline vandalism, threatens to further undermine Nigeria’s crucial oil sector and economic stability.

Nigeria’s crude oil production has plummeted to its lowest level in months, with new data showing a significant decline that experts link to growing political tensions in the oil-rich Rivers State.

According to figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission, daily crude output fell to 1.603 million barrels in March 2025 – a drop of 68,000 barrels from February’s production of 1.671 million barrels.

The worrying decline comes amid widespread protests following President Bola Tinubu’s controversial appointment of Vice Admiral Ibok Ete Ibas (retd.) as sole administrator for Rivers State. “This production slump directly coincides with the political instability in our most important oil-producing region,” noted energy analyst Chike Okonkwo of Lagos Business School.

When condensates are excluded, the numbers appear even more concerning – with production standing at just 1.4 million barrels per day, falling short of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels.

According to SaharaReporters, this marks the lowest production level since January 2025, dealing another blow to the nation’s struggling economy that depends heavily on oil revenues.

From oil pipeline sabotage to political crisis

The current crisis stems from President Tinubu’s March declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, citing “instability and recent pipeline sabotage” as justification for installing the retired naval officer as sole administrator. However, the move has sparked fierce opposition from local groups like the Niger Delta Congress, who view it as federal overreach.

“The people of Rivers State will not accept this military-style takeover of our democratic institutions,” declared NDC spokesperson Tamuno Briggs during recent protests in Port Harcourt. Energy experts warn that the political uncertainty is discouraging investment and creating operational challenges for oil companies.

Historical data reveals a troubling pattern – Nigeria has consistently failed to meet its OPEC production targets throughout 2025. The March figures represent a 7.7% decline from January’s output of 1.737 million barrels. With global oil prices remaining volatile, this production slump could have severe consequences for Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and budget implementation.

Industry observers note that pipeline vandalism, aging infrastructure, and now political instability have created a perfect storm for Nigeria’s oil sector. “Unless these issues are addressed urgently, we may see further production declines in coming months,” warned Okonkwo.