KEY POINTS

• Marketers could lose N466.62 million daily after Dangote cut petrol prices.

• Gillis-Harry warns that arbitrary pricing threatens sector transparency and stability.

• Fuel importers risk obsolescence as local refining grows in Nigeria.

Fuel marketers may lose about N13.998 billion monthly after Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its ex-depot petrol price.

The refinery dropped the price from N865 to N835 per litre on April 16, 2025, its third reduction in six weeks.

According to industry reports, this latest adjustment follows a N45 reduction from N880 just a week earlier.

New prices offered by Dangote now undercut imported petrol by N33.33 per litre, shifting market demand sharply.

As a result, marketers face average daily losses of N466.62 million, according to figures obtained by The PUNCH.

The revised price has already been adopted by partners including MRS, AP, Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil. Pump prices have been lowered across the country, with Lagos prices dropping to N890 and other regions seeing similar cuts.

The price in the South-West is now N900, while the North-West and North-Central regions will pay N910 per litre. South-East, South-South, and North-East residents are to pay N920, down from N950, as per the refinery announcement.

Industry leaders call for pricing transparency

Petroleum marketers say they are forced to sell older stock at a loss due to the sharp price decline.

Independent Petroleum Marketers Association spokesman Chinedu Ukadike acknowledged the benefit to consumers but noted industry losses. He said, “Marketers with old-price stock will have to lose billions. The effect must reflect at the pump.”

Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, warned of broader risks.

He said, “There is no calculation that I know of in the books that would bring petrol prices back to N500, N600 or N700 at the pump.” “The fluctuating prices by players and refiners are probably due to the economic environment in which they are operating.”

“For instance, there is a lower price for crude, which is the feedstock for every refinery,” he continued.

“The concern we continue to have is that it is possible in this industry to just take prices up or down arbitrarily. It is a challenge to the system.” “There is no computation now that can tell us this is the production cost that was used to arrive at the new price, except just an arbitrary decision.”

“But it’s an open market, and some businesses would want to take undue advantage because of size and deep pockets.”

“One company should not hold everyone to ransom, and this is why we call on the government, the Federal Competition and Consumers Protection Commission, and the NMDPRA to weigh the values of this price fluctuation.” “There must be a consideration for all the value chains. Otherwise, it is possible to eat yourself.”

Local refining gains challenge fuel importers

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said petrol imports had declined sharply since last year.

NMDPRA’s Farouk Ahmed said daily importation fell from 44.6 million litres in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres by April 13, 2025.

This drop followed the phased restart of the Port Harcourt Refinery and increased output from modular refineries.

Assuming 14 million litres at N868.33 per litre, the cost reaches N12.17 billion, while Dangote’s price totals N11.69 billion. The difference, N466.62 million, is the average daily loss for importers, now unable to compete on pricing.

Eche Idoko, spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, warned that importers must adapt or collapse. He said, “We are asking them to re-strategise and change their business strategy so they can remain relevant.”

“Well, as long as they decide to keep to that position, at some point, they will all go out of business,” he said. “Because refining in Nigeria has come to stay,” he added.

Meanwhile, NNPC also reduced its pump price to N935 per litre across Abuja stations, still higher than MRS’s N910.