KEY POINTS

• Nigeria produced 454.28 million barrels of crude and condensates from January to September 2025.

• Condensates made up about 12 percent of total production during the period.

• NUPRC blames September’s dip on strikes and maintenance downtime.

Nigeria produced 454.28 million barrels of crude oil and condensates between January and September 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The figures reflect the country’s ongoing struggle to maintain steady output amid production volatility, security concerns, and facility maintenance.

Output trends show uneven recovery

Crude oil contributed 399.81 million barrels to the total, while condensates accounted for 54.47 million barrels, about 12 percent of overall liquids production. On average, Nigeria pumped 1.66 million barrels per day across the nine-month period. Of that, crude made up 1.46 million barrels per day, and condensates added 0.20 million barrels daily. The data underscores the growing role of condensates in balancing national output as deep-offshore gas-linked fields continue to mature.

Production swung noticeably from month to month. Output peaked in January at 47.7 million barrels of crude and 53.86 million barrels in total. It later fell to its lowest in February, at 41.02 million barrels. Between March and July, production hovered above 50 million barrels monthly before dipping again in September to 41.69 million barrels. The NUPRC attributed the decline to industrial action involving labour unions and the Dangote Refinery, as well as maintenance downtime.

Condensates lift Nigeria crude oil production

By September, Nigeria was producing about 93 percent of its 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota. The country met its quota only in January, June, and July. Forcados Terminal led national output with 67.1 million barrels, followed by Bonny (60.54 million), Qua Iboe (40.66 million), and Escravos (37.36 million). Deepwater assets such as Bonga, Erha, and Egina fields provided stability, collectively delivering over 69 million barrels during the period, according to Punch.

Condensate-rich projects, including Agbami and Akpo fields, remained key contributors, producing 21.78 million and 14.38 million barrels respectively. Their steady output helped offset onshore losses caused by vandalism and theft.

Experts say sustaining production above 1.6 million barrels per day will depend on stronger pipeline security and the consistent application of Petroleum Industry Act reforms. The NUPRC has pledged to tighten compliance, improve metering, and work closely with operators to stabilise supply.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has also reported progress on crude evacuation, saying five major pipelines achieved full availability between May and June. However, Group CEO Bayo Ojulari noted that despite operational improvements, producers have yet to meet the government’s 2025 production target of 2.02 million barrels per day.