Key Points

• The 15 percent fuel import tariff may push petrol prices beyond ₦1,000 per litre.

• The 15 percent fuel import tariff aims to protect local refiners like Dangote.

• Critics warn the 15 percent fuel import tariff could worsen inflation and hardship.

President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 percent tariff on fuel imports has caused a lot of anger in Nigeria’s energy and business communities, bringing back worries of more price hikes.

The Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority announced the tariff last week. It goes into effect right away and applies to all imported petroleum products, such as diesel and petrol.

The government says the tax will protect Nigeria’s growing domestic refining industry and encourage full-scale operations at places like the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the modular refineries in Rivers and Edo States.

Officials from the Finance Ministry say the policy fits with Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda,” which aims to reduce the country’s reliance on fuel imports and protect government revenues as foreign reserves continue to fall.

Why Nigerians are worried about the 15% fuel import tax

For most Nigerians, who are already dealing with record inflation above 30% and a volatile naira, this feels like another blow.

Drivers in Lagos and Abuja say that pump prices could go up to more than ₦1,000 per litre, which would erase small gains made since prices stabilised.

The Trade Union Congress and other civil society groups have called the tariff “a punitive policy disguised as reform,” and they want the President to think about it again before the burden spreads through the food and transportation systems.

How the 15% tax on fuel imports affects local refiners

Economists say that the tax could help local investors like Aliko Dangote, but it would only work if crude oil supplies are steady and operations are efficient.

The Dangote Refinery started making a small amount of product in early 2025 and is still ramping up. The government-owned Port Harcourt refinery is still only partially online. The country will have to rely on imports until its own production can fully meet national demand. This means that the new tariff might not lower prices, but instead raise them.

What the policy means for the credibility of Tinubu’s reforms

Tinubu’s government has said many times that getting rid of subsidies and bringing the exchange rate together are hard but necessary steps towards long-term stability. But people are losing faith in the government.

Analysts say that if living costs keep going up and there is no sign of economic relief, the 15 percent fuel import tariff could become a political problem that overshadows bigger fiscal reforms.

As the government stands by its decision, regular Nigerians get ready for tighter budgets. The promise of energy independence is still far away, and people on the street are clear: they are worried that the new tariff will make it even harder to get by every day.