KEY POINTS
- Petrol prices 2026 could average around ₦950.
- .Exchange rate and oil assumptions drive the forecast.
- Local refining remains key to price stability.
Nigeria’s petrol prices could climb to about ₦950 per litre in 2026, according to projections by the Central Bank of Nigeria, underscoring how fuel costs remain tightly linked to crude prices, foreign exchange dynamics and domestic refining capacity.
The estimate, published in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, comes despite recent declines in pump prices following cuts by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has helped ease pressure in the downstream market. Dangote currently sells petrol at a gantry price of ₦699 per litre, while authorised distributor MRS Oil retails the product at ₦739 per litre.
The central bank’s forecast is built on a set of macroeconomic assumptions, including an average crude oil price of $55 a barrel in 2026 and a more stable exchange rate environment, supported by improved market efficiency and stronger capital inflows.
Petrol prices 2026 hinge on oil, FX
Under its baseline scenario, the CBN assumes an average exchange rate of ₦1,451.63 per dollar in the fourth quarter of 2025 and ₦1,400 per dollar in 2026. It also projects domestic crude production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period.
Based on those inputs, the bank expects Premium Motor Spirit prices to hover around ₦950 per litre next year. It said increased private-sector investment, particularly in domestic refining, should support growth and help contain energy costs, even as global oil prices remain volatile.
The outlook also points to rising crude output, improved security around oil assets and expanding refining capacity as factors likely to strengthen fuel supply conditions in 2026.
Petrol prices 2026 seen easing inflation
Although petrol prices may rise from current levels, the CBN expects broader price pressures to ease. The bank projects headline inflation will slow to 12.94 percent in 2026 from an estimated 21.26 percent in 2025, supported by lower food prices and softer fuel costs as competition increases in the midstream sector.
Recent market movements highlight how local refining has reshaped pricing. Data from Petroleumprice.ng show petrol selling at around ₦900 per litre or more in many locations before December. Prices fell after Dangote cut its ex-gantry rate from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre and enforced a ₦739 pump price through MRS Oil, prompting rivals to follow suit.
Dangote has warned, however, that petrol prices could surge to as high as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy reliance on imports, arguing that large-scale local production has helped stabilise the market and reduce volatility.
