Key Points

• IMF upgrades Nigeria’s growth outlook to 4.4% in 2026, citing improved economy and ongoing reforms.

• Energy prices and fiscal stability remain critical to sustaining economic growth.

• IMF urges Nigeria to rebuild reserves and maintain central bank independence for stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its prediction for Nigeria’s economic growth to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Fund said this reflects better economic conditions and ongoing reforms.

The IMF shared the update in its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.”

Steady Growth Expected

Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow steadily, moving from 4.1 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025, and then to 4.4 percent in 2026. This is 0.2 points higher than the IMF’s forecast in October 2025.

The IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook is part of a wider recovery in sub-Saharan Africa, where growth could reach 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027.

The Fund credited regional progress to “better economic management and ongoing reforms.”

Globally, the IMF expects 3.3 percent growth in 2026. It noted that while there are challenges like trade tensions, global investment in technology and AI is helping offset risks.

Oil Prices and Risks

For Nigeria, energy prices are a key factor. The IMF expects oil and gas prices to fall by around 7 percent in 2026 because of weaker global demand.

But oil prices are supported by coordinated production by OPEC+ and stockpiling by China, which helps prevent bigger drops.

The IMF warned that risks remain, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, new trade barriers, and high public debt, which could push up long-term interest rates.

Policy Advice for Nigeria

To keep growth on track, the IMF advised Nigeria to rebuild its financial reserves and continue reforms without delay.

It also stressed that the central bank must stay independent to maintain stability. Any government support should be focused and temporary, with clear rules for ending it.

The IMF concluded that Nigeria can meet its 2026 growth target only if reforms are consistently applied and the country can handle shocks at home and abroad.