Key Points

• Dangote Refinery raises gantry price to N874 per liter, pushing pump prices toward N1,000.
• Iran war drives Brent crude up 8.7 percent, triggering the refinery’s price adjustment.
• JPMorgan warns crude could hit $120 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.

Nigerians could soon be paying as much as N1,000 per liter for petrol after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its gantry price by N100, a move driven by surging global crude oil prices linked to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.

The refinery raised its ex-depot price to N874 per liter from N774, according to a senior refinery official who confirmed the adjustment Monday. The refinery notified marketers directly, citing changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs.

Chinedu Ukadike, national publicity secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said consumers should expect the increase to hit filling stations quickly.

“Following the increase by Dangote, the pump price will likely range between N980 and over N1,000 per liter, depending on location and logistics,” Ukadike said. “This is largely the effect of the recent hike in global crude oil prices.”

The refinery briefly suspended petrol loading operations at midnight on March 2 after Brent crude surged past $80 per barrel, though diesel supplies continued uninterrupted. Several depot owners also halted petrol sales to reassess what it would cost to restock.

“The market is already factoring in risk premiums,” one downstream operator said. “Nobody wants to sell below replacement cost.”

Brent crude for April delivery rose 8.7 percent Monday to $79.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 7.8 percent to $72.16, following coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and nearly 50 senior Iranian officials. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli and U.S. military installations across the Persian Gulf.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil consumption — has dropped by approximately 70 percent as security risks mount and major carriers suspend transits. JPMorgan Chase projected Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel if the conflict prolongs disruptions through the strait.

Five energy analysts warned that Nigeria could face further fuel price increases if crude surpasses $90 per barrel, with higher shipping and insurance costs feeding through to pump prices despite the country’s growing domestic refining capacity.

The Dangote refinery currently produces about 650,000 barrels of refined products daily, with output expected to double within three years. Dangote Group president Aliko Dangote, speaking in a recent interview, said the refinery employs roughly 30,000 workers — about 80 percent of them Nigerian — and that broader expansion into electricity generation, steel production and port infrastructure would raise total group employment to about 65,000.

Dangote also announced plans to list refinery shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange to widen local ownership.