KEY POINTS

• Nigeria recorded N11.7 trillion in capital spending in 2025, representing 76 percent of the capital budget, against N11.59 trillion and 84 percent in 2024.
• Oil revenue hit only N7 trillion in 2025 against a N37.4 trillion projection, a 19 percent performance rate that drives most of the fiscal pressure.
• Federal revenue grew from N12.48 trillion in 2023 to roughly N22 trillion by November 2025, even as debt service hit N14.57 trillion.

The Federal Ministry of Finance pushed back Sunday against concerns that Nigeria’s capital projects are grinding to a halt, releasing figures that show the country spent N11.7 trillion on capital expenditure in 2025, roughly 76 percent of its capital budget, even as oil revenue collapsed far below projections.

The clarification arrived in a document titled “Deepening Public Understanding of Nigeria’s Fiscal Position: Context and Background,” signed by Dr. Ogho Okiti, Special Adviser to the Minister of Finance. The ministry directed the document at lawmakers who raised questions about low cash releases to ministries, departments and agencies during deliberations on the 2026 budget.

“These figures demonstrate that capital projects are ongoing. The financing mix differs, but implementation has not been abandoned,” the ministry said.

Why cash release figures mislead

The ministry’s central argument rests on how federal capital spending actually works. Beyond direct MDA budget releases, the government finances projects through funds tied to specific development partner loans and multilateral grants.

Those funds routinely bypass federal accounts entirely, meaning any analysis that tracks only MDA cash releases will undercount actual project activity on the ground.

In 2024, total capital expenditure reached N11.59 trillion, about 84 percent of that year’s capital budget. Provisional 2025 figures show spending of approximately N11.7 trillion.

The oil hole at the centre of everything

The ministry did not dispute that fiscal pressures are real. It traced them directly to an oil revenue shortfall of historic proportions. The federation projected N37.4 trillion in oil revenue for 2025. Actual inflows reached about N7 trillion, a 19 percent performance rate. Since the federal government draws a larger share of oil revenue than other tiers, that gap hits federal finances harder than it hits states.

Debt service costs climbed from N12.63 trillion in 2024 to N14.57 trillion in 2025, driven by exchange rate depreciation and higher domestic interest rates rather than reckless borrowing, the ministry argued. Part of the public debt increase also reflects the formal recognition of N30 trillion in previous Ways and Means advances and exchange rate valuation adjustments on existing obligations.

Federal revenue, meanwhile, grew from N12.48 trillion in 2023 to approximately N22 trillion by November 2025. “Nigeria is not experiencing fiscal collapse; it is also undergoing fiscal correction,” the ministry said.