KEY POINTS

• Cardoso says Nigeria’s reforms have positioned the economy to weather Middle East shocks.
• Nigeria’s external reserves have exceeded $50 billion, highest in over 13 years.
• Capital inflows rose nearly 200 percent between 2023 and 2025.

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso delivered a pointed message of economic confidence Thursday, telling an audience at St Gregory’s College that the reforms of the past two years had given Nigeria the buffers it needs to absorb whatever the US-Iran conflict sends its way.

Cardoso Nigeria economy resilience, he argued, was no longer theoretical. Speaking at the school’s annual Founders Day celebration, where he delivered the Distinguished Alumni Lecture, Cardoso pointed to a trio of hard numbers as evidence that the country had moved to a stronger footing: external reserves exceeding $50 billion for the first time in more than 13 years, nearly 200 percent growth in capital inflows between 2023 and 2025, and a foreign exchange market that now records daily transactions exceeding $1 billion without requiring extraordinary central bank intervention. “The storms may come, but our house will stand firm,” he said.

What the War Could Mean for Nigeria

Cardoso did not dismiss the risks. He acknowledged that the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran had the potential to push energy prices higher, disrupt global supply chains, and make international investors more cautious about emerging markets. These are precisely the conditions that have historically hurt Nigeria.

But he argued the country was entering this period of uncertainty from a position it had not occupied in years. The official parallel-market premium on the naira, once as wide as 50 percent in 2022, had narrowed to less than 2 percent on average in 2025. Inflation, which peaked at 34 percent, has since fallen to around 15 percent as the CBN maintained tighter monetary policy. Gross external reserves stood at $50.45 billion as of February 16, 2026, and net reserves climbed from $3.99 billion at end-2023 to $34.8 billion by close of 2025.

Banking Sector Recapitalisation on Track

Cardoso also reported that 33 Nigerian banks had successfully raised additional capital under the CBN’s 2024 recapitalisation programme, with 30 having already met the new minimum capital requirements for their respective license categories.

He framed Cardoso Nigeria economy resilience as inseparable from the health of the banking sector, arguing that transparent markets and well-capitalised institutions were not just financial metrics but the practical foundations of sustainable growth.

Turning to students in the audience, Cardoso urged them to build skills that cut across disciplines, predicting that the careers of the future would belong to those who could move fluidly between technology, medicine, law, and finance.