Key Points

• TUC president Festus Osifo warned petrol prices could reach N2,000 per liter in parts of Nigeria if the government does not intervene quickly.
• The union wants 60% of excess crude oil revenue above the 2026 budget benchmark redirected to subsidize feedstock for the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries.
• Osifo says the naira must stabilize between N800 and N900 to the dollar to ease inflation and bring fuel costs down.

Nigeria’s largest labor federation is raising an alarm loud enough to rattle Abuja: petrol prices are drifting dangerously close to N2,000 per liter in some parts of the country, and without swift action, the number could get worse.

Festus Osifo, president of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, made the warning Thursday in Abuja at a press briefing on the state of the nation, pulling no punches as he described the pain ordinary workers are feeling at the pump.

“Nigerian workers are already passing through excruciating pain as we speak,” Osifo said. “The cost of petrol is edging toward N2,000 per liter depending on the part of the country that you are.”

The ripple effect across the economy

Osifo was not just talking about getting to work. He traced the fuel crisis straight through to the cost of bread on the shelf.

Rising diesel prices, he said, have driven up the cost of running generators and factory equipment. That increase in production costs, he argued, will eventually land on consumers when manufacturers pass their losses forward. And if that cycle is left unchecked, he warned, Nigeria’s recently improving inflation numbers will reverse direction fast.

“The inflation that we are currently celebrating as going downwards will reverse and start moving up again,” he said.

What TUC wants Tinubu to do

The union came with a specific fix, not just a complaint. Osifo called on President Bola Tinubu to deploy at least 60% of the excess crude oil revenue the government is currently earning above the 2026 budget benchmark and use it to subsidize feedstock supplies to the Dangote Refinery and other modular refineries.

The 2026 Appropriation Act pegged the crude oil benchmark at $64.85 per barrel. With international crude prices hovering around $100 per barrel, driven by the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Nigeria is collecting roughly $35.15 per barrel above that benchmark. Osifo wants at least $20 of that gap redirected to local refineries.

He argued this approach is structurally different from the old subsidy regime that ended under controversy.

Why this subsidy would be harder to abuse

“When you subsidize crude, it doesn’t have the ability to be abused because you are subsidizing production directly,” Osifo said. He projected that petrol, diesel and jet fuel prices could fall within one to two weeks if the proposal is adopted.

The TUC is formalizing the call in a letter to President Tinubu through the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, pushing for implementation before the next federation account distribution.

Naira, CNG and the road ahead

Osifo also pointed to the naira’s continued slide as a compounding factor. He said the currency should be trading between N800 and N900 to the dollar, noting that a stronger naira would cut fuel costs almost immediately.

On the government’s push for compressed natural gas buses, Osifo acknowledged the long-term logic but questioned the rollout. He compared traveling on CNG through major highways without refueling stations to driving an electric car with no charging infrastructure in sight.

“If you are traveling from one city to another and your vehicle runs out of CNG, where will you refill?” he asked.

Security adds pressure

Osifo used the briefing to also condemn the continuing violence in communities across Nigeria, citing recent killings in Angwa Rukuba, Plateau State, where dozens of Nigerians were slaughtered during a celebration. He called on the government to prioritize security funding and equip military and police forces with modern surveillance technology and combat tools.

“It is a country that is secure that you start thinking about development,” he said. “If a country is not secure, it is not favorable to build roads, hospitals or schools.”