KEY POINTS
- LPG retail price could rise to N1,500/kg from N1,300/kg as depot stocks dry up across Nigeria.
- Dangote Refinery, Ardova Plc and Navgas remain the only commercial suppliers, with depot prices ranging N1,060 to N1,085 per kilogram.
- Domestic gas utilization rose to 55,903.72 MMSCF in March 2026, signaling broader demand growth across power and industry.
The retail price of cooking gas in Nigeria could climb to N1,500 per kilogram in the coming days as depot stocks dry up across the country, with only Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Ardova Plc and Navgas left holding commercial volumes for the domestic market.
Checks at major depots on Monday showed Dangote Refinery selling Liquefied Petroleum Gas at N1,060 per kilogram, Ardova at N1,065 and Navgas at N1,085, prices that would translate into retail tags well above the current N1,300 average if depot scarcity holds.
Demand outruns supply
Now the supply squeeze is biting at the worst possible moment, with households and businesses across Lagos and other cities accelerating their switch away from kerosene and firewood toward cooking gas as the standard cooking fuel.
Specifically, market sources said that rising household and industrial demand has outpaced depot replenishment, particularly in Lagos and the southwest where adoption of gas-powered kitchens has been fastest.
Indeed, the absence of broader supplier participation has left Dangote Refinery, Ardova and Navgas carrying the market on their own, a concentration that magnifies any logistical or pricing decision they make.
Moreover, Olatide Jeremiah, chief executive officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said the current pressure could trigger further increases in retail tariffs. “There is the likelihood that the price of cooking gas will rise in the coming days because of high demand. Many homes and other users have shifted to cooking gas,” he said.
Gas utilization climbs
Furthermore, the supply tightness comes at a moment when the broader Nigerian gas system is producing and using more molecules. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported a rise in domestic gas utilization in March 2026, reinforcing the federal government’s push to deepen local consumption.
Additionally, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission data showed domestic gas sales climbing to 55,903.72 million standard cubic feet in March from 52,300.45 MMSCF in February, alongside higher national gas production. The data points to firmer use by gas-fired power plants and industrial consumers chasing cleaner alternatives to diesel and fuel oil.
Today, Nigeria utilized 224,935.06 MMSCF of the 240,510.62 MMSCF produced in March, a utilization rate of 93.5 percent that signals the supply chain is squeezing the most out of available molecules.
What it means for consumers
Meanwhile, the rising LPG retail prices add another inflation pressure point for Nigerian households already wrestling with food and transport costs. Cooking gas had become a relative refuge for many families after kerosene prices spiked, and a fresh price climb threatens to erode that gain.
However, the producer mix tells its own story. Dangote Refinery’s growing share of LPG output, alongside Ardova and Navgas, reflects how concentrated the supply side has become. Together, the three account for the available commercial volumes, while other historical suppliers sit on the sidelines.
The federal government has long pushed LPG as the cooking fuel of choice through the National Gas Expansion Programme, an effort that requires consistent supply and affordable retail prices to deliver on stated targets.
Whether depot stocks rebuild quickly enough to head off the projected N1,500/kg retail mark will determine how households navigate the next few weeks. Yet for now, suppliers, consumers and regulators are all watching the same metric: how soon volumes return to the depot taps.
