KEY POINTS

• FMDA projects Nigeria’s April 2026 headline inflation at 16.42 percent year-on-year, up from 15.38 percent in March.
• The forecast reverses months of disinflation, with PMS prices rising 9.44 percent to N1,322.50 and food prices firmer across staples like yam.
• The naira appreciated 1.36 percent on average to N1,361.22 per dollar, partly offsetting global commodity pressures.

The Financial Market Dealers Association on Thursday projected Nigeria’s headline inflation to rise to 16.42 percent year-on-year in April 2026, reversing months of steady moderation as food prices, higher energy costs and global commodity stress press down on domestic baskets.

FMDA’s April 2026 Inflation Forecast report said the projected reading lifts inflation from 15.38 percent in March 2026, marking the first consecutive monthly acceleration in the annual rate since the middle of 2025.

Now the forecast resets the disinflation narrative the federal government has leaned on, with inflation having dropped from a 27.35 percent peak in March 2025 to 15.06 percent in February 2026 before the trend turned.

Where prices are climbing

Specifically, FMDA traced the projected uptick to sustained pressure from food and energy prices alongside tightening conditions in global commodity markets.

Indeed, the average price of Premium Motor Spirit rose to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, a 9.44 percent monthly increase. Although the pace slowed from the 37.35 percent surge recorded in March, fuel costs continue to feed into transportation and production budgets across the economy.

Moreover, the domestic food price index climbed to 3.69 points in April from 3.60 points in March, with yam recording the steepest increase at 3.98 percent. Watermelon, maize, millet and sorghum also posted moderate price gains over the month, deepening household pressure on grocery bills.

Month-on-month math

Furthermore, the month-on-month picture offers a slightly less alarming read. Headline inflation is forecast at 2.78 percent in April, lower than the 4.18 percent recorded in March but still elevated compared to the broader disinflation that defined the second half of 2025.

Today, the divergence between the annual and monthly readings reflects a market still adjusting to subsidy removal, naira repricing and global energy volatility, with each pulse passing through retail shelves on different timelines.

Additionally, FMDA noted that despite the projected acceleration, some factors could moderate the overall impact. The naira appreciated 1.36 percent on average to N1,361.22 per dollar in April from N1,379.98 in March, while the pace of fuel price increases slowed.

The macro takeaway

Meanwhile, FMDA warned that worsening global commodity conditions could sustain inflationary pressure through the coming months, particularly as Middle East-driven oil and food market disruption feeds into local pricing.

However, the projected April figure remains well below the 27.35 percent peak of 2025, leaving room for the central bank and finance ministry to argue that the disinflation arc has not fully broken even if its slope has flattened.

Together with the naira’s marginal appreciation and the slower pace of fuel hikes, the FMDA outlook suggests inflation is settling into a higher band than the Tinubu administration’s reform pitch initially promised, but not racing back to the levels that defined the early subsidy-removal months.

Whether the central bank treats the projected April uptick as a one-off or a structural shift will determine its next monetary policy move. Yet for now, FMDA’s forecast tells Nigerian households one clear thing: the cost of essentials will likely stay sticky, with food and fuel keeping the upper hand.