KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s trade surplus rose 220 percent to $480 million in January 2026.
• Export receipts hit a record $4.68 billion, led by oil and gas.
• Non-oil exports fell 5.88 percent to $800 million on weaker cocoa prices.

Nigeria’s trade surplus jumped to $480 million in January 2026, a 220 percent leap from the month before, as oil exports powered a record month for sales abroad. The Central Bank of Nigeria reported the figure in its January Monthly Economic Report. A trade surplus means a country earns more from exports than it spends on imports, and a wider gap can ease pressure on the naira and foreign reserves. Moreover, the rebound shows how heavily the country still leans on petroleum to balance its books.

What drove the trade surplus

Export receipts rose 4.46 percent to a record $4.68 billion, and petroleum did most of the heavy lifting. Specifically, crude oil, gas and refined products made up 83.12 percent of all export earnings. Consequently, oil export receipts climbed 7.46 percent to $3.89 billion, while gas exports added $750 million. Together, those oil and gas sales accounted for the bulk of the record haul.

The surplus also widened sharply because December had been weak. Indeed, the $480 million figure dwarfs the $150 million surplus recorded in December 2025. Therefore, the month-on-month swing reached 220 percent, even though the underlying export growth stayed far smaller. The CBN said import bills also rose, by about 3 percent during the month.

Oil strength, non-oil softness

Higher crude prices helped lift the numbers. According to the CBN, average oil prices rose during January, partly because supply disruptions tightened the global market. Meanwhile, that price strength flowed straight into Nigeria’s export earnings, since crude still dominates what the country sells overseas. Nigeria remains one of Africa’s biggest oil producers, so global crude swings shape its trade balance more than almost any other factor.

Non-oil exports, however, moved the other way. They fell 5.88 percent to $800 million, as cocoa earnings slipped. Specifically, better weather across West Africa brightened harvest prospects, which pushed cocoa prices down and trimmed Nigeria’s receipts. Cocoa ranks among the country’s largest non-oil exports, so a price dip quickly feeds into the wider trade surplus. So a strong oil month masked a softer performance in the very sectors the government wants to grow.

Why it matters

The report underlines a familiar pattern. Now, as in past cycles, oil and gas still decide whether Nigeria runs a surplus or a deficit. While the January numbers look strong, they also expose that dependence, since a single swing in crude prices can flip the balance within weeks.

Policymakers chasing diversification will likely read the soft non-oil figures as a warning. Additionally, the dip in cocoa earnings shows how quickly global weather and prices can erode Nigeria’s hard-won gains outside oil. Together, the data hands the government both a win to celebrate and a vulnerability to fix.