KEY POINTS

• The IMF says Nigeria’s reforms improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience.
• It warns 63 percent of Nigerians lived in poverty at the end of 2025.
• More than 27 million people faced food insecurity, with insecurity and inflation cited as key risks.

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that reforms by the Nigerian government had strengthened the economy, yet it warned that more than 60 percent of Nigerians now live in poverty. The Fund issued the assessment after its annual review of Africa’s most populous nation.

Reforms deliver, but pain persists

Since taking office just over three years ago, President Bola Tinubu has removed a costly fuel subsidy that long kept petrol prices artificially low, liberalized the exchange rate and overhauled the tax system. Although economists called the changes long overdue, poverty kept rising, affecting 63 percent of the population at the end of 2025. Moreover, the IMF said more than 27 million people faced food insecurity during the year.

“Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience,” the Fund said. Still, it added, “conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult.” Indeed, poverty has climbed for years. The World Bank reported that about 61 percent of Nigerians lived in poverty, up from 40 percent in 2019, and it noted that three-quarters of that increase occurred before Tinubu took office in 2023.

Insecurity and inflation cloud the outlook

Furthermore, the IMF flagged widespread insecurity from armed groups as another risk to people and economic activity, especially in the north, where farmers grow much of the country’s food. According to the latest official figures, inflation accelerated to an annual 15.7 percent in April, a five-month high. Analysts partly blamed higher fuel prices linked to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Fund projected economic growth of 4.1 percent this year, after 4 percent in 2025. However, it cautioned that while higher costs of food, fertilizer and fuel could lift revenues for Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, they could also deepen inflation for poor households and “potentially aggravate poverty and food insecurity.”

Ultimately, the assessment lands at a politically sensitive moment, because Nigeria heads to the polls in January, when Tinubu seeks re-election for a second term. The mixed verdict, stronger headline numbers alongside worsening household conditions, hands both the government and its critics evidence to press their competing cases.