KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s crude exports to India are increasing.
• Indian refiners are shifting from Russian to Nigerian oil.
• West African grades are gaining ground in Asian markets.

India’s biggest state refiners are moving fast to replace lost Russian barrels with oil from Nigeria, a switch that could reshape established trade routes and deepen West Africa’s role in Asia’s energy market.

The move follows months of intensifying U.S. diplomatic pressure on New Delhi to curtail purchases from Moscow, part of Washington’s broader effort to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues.

According to trading sources cited by Reuters, well over two million barrels of Nigerian crude are slated to arrive in India between September and October 2025.

Nigeria’s crude exports to India surge

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the country’s largest refiner, recently bought one million barrels of Agbami crude for September delivery from global commodities trader Trafigura.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) secured additional Nigerian cargoes through spot market transactions, diversifying its intake with West African grades that are prized for their low sulfur content and adaptability for gasoline and diesel production.

The purchases are part of a wider buying spree that includes one million barrels of Angola’s Girassol, one million barrels of U.S. Mars, and three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban.

This rapid diversification marks a sharp turn from India’s buying patterns over the past two years, when it leaned heavily on Russian supplies after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, largely bypassing the spot market.

Nigerian oil gains ground in Asia

With Russian barrels now off the table, Nigeria is stepping into a space long dominated by Middle Eastern producers. Its sweet crude grades offer refiners a high yield of light products, making them a natural fit for India’s transportation-driven fuel demand.

For Nigeria, the shift could mean more stable demand from one of the world’s fastest-growing oil consumers—a welcome boost after years of fluctuating output and security concerns in the Niger Delta.

Yet the surge in Nigerian shipments to India carries an ironic twist. Even as millions of barrels head east, the $20 billion Dangote Oil Refinery in Lagos—Africa’s largest—has been importing much of its feedstock from the United States.

Despite a naira-for-crude supply deal with the Nigerian government, the refinery averaged imports of 10 million barrels in July, which illustrates the complexity of domestic supply dynamics.

Strategic implications for global oil flows

For India, the pivot to Nigerian oil reduces dependence on politically sensitive suppliers and underscores the flexibility of its refining sector. It also signals a subtle rebalancing of Asia’s crude diet, with West African producers playing a larger role in meeting demand.

For Nigeria, the timing is critical. The country is seeking to maximize output under its OPEC quota, boost foreign exchange earnings, and position itself as a reliable supplier beyond its traditional European buyers.

The added demand from India could strengthen Abuja’s bargaining position in global markets, particularly if geopolitical tensions continue to roil established supply chains.

Now, the question is whether this shift will become a permanent fixture of the oil trade or merely a temporary solution until political conditions change.

For now, however, Nigerian barrels are making their way towards Indian shores, and both parties seem eager to capitalize on this opportunity.