KEY POINTS

• Dangote Refinery delivered 23.52 million litres daily in November, below projections
• Total petrol supply rose to 71 million litres per day, driven largely by imports
• Nigeria remains dependent on imports despite rising local refining capacity

Nigeria’s fuel supply expanded significantly in November despite petrol deliveries from the Dangote Refinery falling well below official projections, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The disclosure comes nearly two weeks after Farouk Ahmed stepped down as chief executive of the regulator, amid growing scrutiny of fuel supply data and leadership changes in the sector.

In its November 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet, the NMDPRA said the $20 billion Dangote Refinery was expected to supply about 35 million litres of petrol per day to the domestic market during the month. Actual deliveries averaged 23.52 million litres daily, representing a shortfall of more than 11 million litres against projections. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, owns the refinery, and analysts see it as central to Nigeria’s push to cut dependence on imported fuel.

The regulator noted that the lower output came during a period of easing demand. Estimated national petrol consumption declined to about 52.9 million litres per day in November, down from 56.7 million litres per day in October, reflecting a moderation in usage after earlier spikes.

Imports lift overall fuel availability

Despite the refinery’s underperformance, overall petrol availability across the country rose sharply. NMDPRA data showed that total daily petrol supply increased to 71 million litres in November, compared with 46 million litres per day in October. Imports accounted for the bulk of the increase, contributing an average of 52.1 million litres daily, while local refineries, including Dangote, supplied roughly 19.5 million litres per day.

Accordingt to the Billionaires Africa, the regulator said the surge in imports followed corrective measures taken after fuel availability fell below national requirements in September and October. Officials said authorities approved additional cargoes to rebuild stock levels and prevent shortages as year-end travel, logistics, and commercial activity picked up.

NMDPRA said the strategy seeks to stabilise supply and curb queues at filling stations while local refining capacity continues to expand. The data, however, highlight Nigeria’s continued reliance on imported petrol despite the presence of Africa’s largest refinery on home soil.

Refinery plans and regulatory transition

The November figures were released against the backdrop of leadership changes at the petroleum regulator. Ahmed resigned days after Dangote publicly called for an investigation into media reports alleging that the former chief executive paid about $5 million for the secondary education of his four children in Switzerland. President Bola Tinubu has since nominated Engineer Saidu Aliyu Mohammed as Ahmed’s replacement, with the appointment awaiting Senate confirmation.

Commissioned in 2023 with an initial capacity of 350,000 barrels per day, the Dangote Refinery began full petrol production in September 2024 and is gradually moving toward its design capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Dangote has repeatedly said the refinery’s long term goal is to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and stabilise domestic supply.

During a recent visit by the South South Development Commission, Dangote said the refinery would release about 1.5 billion litres of petrol into the domestic market in December and another 1.5 billion litres in January 2026. That would translate to roughly 50 million litres per day starting December 1, with output expected to rise to about 60 million litres daily by February.

He added that current daily production already ranges between 40 million and 45 million litres. For regulators and consumers, the November data underscore the persistent gap between planned output and actual delivery at the refinery, while also illustrating how imports continue to play a decisive role in keeping Nigeria’s fuel market supplied during periods of elevated demand.