KEY POINTS

• Nigeria PMI remained in expansion at 53.5.
• New orders and output rose on stronger demand.
• Nigeria PMI signaled improved confidence despite inflation.

Nigeria’s private sector closed 2025 on a solid growth footing, supported by stronger customer demand that translated into higher output, new orders and purchasing activity, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index from Stanbic IBTC Bank.

The December 2025 PMI showed business conditions remained firmly in expansionary territory, extending a growth streak that has now lasted more than a year. While inflationary pressures edged higher during the month, they stayed close to recent lows, and business confidence improved sharply as firms looked ahead to planned investments.

The PMI, which tracks monthly changes in business conditions, stood at 53.5 in December, little changed from 53.6 in November. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The Nigeria PMI reveals that the private sector is still growing

The December reading was the thirteenth month in a row where operational conditions got better, which was about the same as the 2025 average. People who took the survey said that stronger demand led to a big increase in new orders, which made companies buy more and restock their shelves.

Employment increased again during the month, although the pace of job creation remained marginal, suggesting firms are still cautious about adding staff despite stronger workloads.

“Headline PMI moderated for the second consecutive month in December, although it remained in growth territory,” said Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank. He noted that business activity expanded at a slightly slower pace than in November but continued to reflect resilient demand conditions.

Oni also said that business optimism is at its highest level in six months, thanks to plans for growth, such creating additional branches and working to improve exports.

Nigeria PMI highlights inflation and outlook

Input costs rose sharply in December from the near five-year low recorded in November, though inflation remained below the 2025 average. Companies passed some of those higher costs on to customers, with selling prices increasing across sectors and the steepest rises recorded in manufacturing.

Stanbic IBTC linked the pickup in inflationary pressures to higher spending associated with the December festive period. The bank expects consumer inflation to rise both month on month and year on year, with the annual increase amplified by base effects following Nigeria’s rebased Consumer Price Index.

Based on its estimates, Stanbic IBTC projects headline inflation of 1.44 percent month on month in December, implying a CPI of 132.34, and a year-on-year inflation rate of 32.34 percent.

Despite the cost pressures, the PMI data suggest Nigeria’s private sector entered 2026 with improving momentum, stronger sentiment and expectations of further investment-led growth.