KEY POINTS
- NESG warns 2027 elections could reverse economic reform gains.
- Sustained macroeconomic discipline is critical for 2026 consolidation.
- Weak agriculture and manufacturing threaten reform outcomes under political pressure.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that the 2027 general elections could pose the greatest threat yet to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, highlighting the risks of reform fatigue and policy reversals as political activity intensifies.
Speaking at the presentation of the NESG 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, Chief Economist Dr. Omishakin said countries often lose early stabilisation gains if governments fail to consolidate reforms, particularly during election periods.
“Election cycles are usually the most difficult moments for reforms,” he said. “Once the immediate crisis passes, discipline weakens, policies become inconsistent, and gains begin to reverse.”
2026 a critical year for consolidation
Omishakin noted that Nigeria is in a critical consolidation phase following stabilisation reforms between 2023 and 2025. He stressed that 2026 would be decisive in locking in progress ahead of the 2027 polls.
“Countries often relapse after stabilisation because they underestimate the importance of consolidation. If we get distracted by short-term political considerations in 2027, we may not sustain what we have achieved,” he said.
Nigeria’s current real GDP growth of 3.8 per cent remains below the 5.5 to 6 per cent needed for meaningful economic transformation. Omishakin warned that failure to deepen reforms could see growth slip back to the 2 to 3 per cent range of previous years.
He added that maintaining reform momentum requires firm macroeconomic discipline, including a clear path to single-digit inflation, exchange rate stability, and foreign reserves around $50 billion.
Sector performance and election pressures
Omishakin highlighted weak growth in agriculture and manufacturing as potential risks to consolidation, with manufacturing expanding at about 1.5 per cent and agriculture at roughly 2 per cent. “You cannot sustain reforms without jobs, productivity, and inclusion. Election pressures make this even more challenging,” he said.
NESG Chairman Niyi Yusuf urged policymakers to resist short-term populist measures as political activity increases. “Stabilisation is only the first step. The real work is consolidation, and that work must continue even as we approach the 2027 elections,” he said.
