KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s exports rose to 44.06 billion dollars in the first nine months of 2025, strengthening the naira and boosting foreign exchange supply.

• Growth was driven mainly by oil shipments, petroleum product exports, and gradual gains in non-oil trade.

• Experts say progress is positive but warn that economic gains must translate into lower prices and better living conditions for citizens.

Nigeria’s external trade performance showed notable improvement in 2025, with total exports reaching 44.06 billion dollars in the first nine months of the year.

According to the latest quarterly statistics released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, this represents a 3.76 billion dollar increase compared to the 40.29 billion dollars recorded during the same period in 2024.

Analysts say the stronger export earnings have contributed to improved sentiment around the naira, which recently appreciated to about 1,351 per dollar in the official foreign exchange market. Policymakers attribute the progress to ongoing macroeconomic reforms aimed at stabilising the currency and strengthening the country’s financial fundamentals.

Data indicates that July 2025 recorded the highest monthly export value at 5.85 billion dollars, followed by May at 5.18 billion dollars. By comparison, January 2024 was the strongest month that year at 5.04 billion dollars.

The largest performance gap between both years occurred in July, when exports exceeded the previous year’s figure by about 1.26 billion dollars. Analysts say such differences reflect stronger oil shipments, improved petroleum product exports, and gradual growth in non-oil trade.

Oil exports still dominate Nigeria’s trade earnings

Industry stakeholders say crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s export sector, though non-oil exports are slowly gaining ground. Segun Kuti-George of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists described the export growth as encouraging and linked it directly to improved foreign exchange liquidity and exchange-rate stability.

He explained that rising export receipts have helped stabilise the naira after a prolonged period of volatility, noting that the currency’s recent appreciation signals renewed confidence in the economy.

Trade specialists believe recent improvements suggest policy measures aimed at boosting exports are beginning to yield results. Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, a former export group chairman at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, pointed to recent performance data from the Nigerian Export Promotion Council showing non-oil exports hitting about 6.1 billion dollars.

However, he stressed that Nigeria still underperforms relative to its economic size and potential, arguing that stronger institutional support and financing mechanisms would significantly expand export capacity.

Analysts attribute the improved figures to several key developments, including higher crude production, improved security conditions in oil-producing regions, increased refining output, and reforms designed to improve transparency in the foreign exchange market.

These factors have increased foreign currency inflows, strengthened reserves, and reduced pressure on the naira, reinforcing the link between export performance and currency stability.