KEY POINTS

• INEC’s final list includes 17 governorship candidates.
• APC’s Aiyedatiwa and PDP’s Ajayi are top contenders.
• Wike’s influence could impact the election outcome.

Voters in Ondo State will choose a governor for a four-year term next Saturday. Seventeen political parties have submitted candidates, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Candidates vie for control of Ondo State

The incumbent, Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), former deputy governor Agboola Ajayi of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and fifteen other candidates are on INEC’s final candidate list, which was released on June 14.

According to Sam Olumekun, INEC’s National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) held new primaries to nominate replacement candidates and their running mates following the June 10 deadline.

Parties have been campaigning throughout the state in recent weeks, outlining their platforms. On November 14, all campaigning will end by midnight. Aiyedatiwa of the APC and Ajayi of the PDP are predicted to be the front-runners, with the other parties being viewed as long shots.

Following disagreements with the late governor Rotimi Akeredolu, both of the leading candidates survived attempts at impeachment. The Akeredolu political dynasty, which has been in conflict with Aiyedatiwa while being a member of the APC, is of particular interest to observers.

Wike’s stance and Akeredolu’s legacy draw attention

According to Businessday, Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory in the APC-led government, is also being questioned about his stance. Former Ondo Governor Olusegun Mimiko was close to Wike, who helped him join the PDP. In 2023, Wike was a member of the G5 Integrity Group, which backed Bola Tinubu over PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar. It is unclear to observers whether Wike will endorse Aiyedatiwa of the APC, his present party, or Ajayi of the PDP, Mimiko’s political protégé.

Analysts point to a comparable circumstance in the most recent Edo State gubernatorial race, in which Wike implicitly supported the APC rather than the PDP’s candidate. Given the APC’s position as the state’s ruling party and INEC’s prior results in off-cycle elections, many anticipate a close contest in Ondo, with some forecasting an advantage for the party.