KEY POINTS

• Mozambique faces a growing humanitarian crisis with at least 110 dead amid violent protests incited by opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane.
• Calls for electoral reform were met with Mondlane’s escalation of unrest, threatening Mozambique’s fragile stability and risking wider regional conflict.
• International calls for intervention grow as the ICC faces pressure to hold Mondlane accountable for inciting violence and destabilizing the nation.

Mozambique is on the brink of disaster. The political and social fabric of the country is disintegrating, largely due to the reckless actions and incendiary rhetoric of Venâncio Mondlane, the leader of the opposition party RENAMO. Following the controversial October 9, 2024 elections, which were contested over allegations of fraud, Mondlane has escalated the situation by encouraging violence and civil disobedience. His rhetoric is not merely political dissent — it is a direct and dangerous incitement to violence. At least 110 people have already lost their lives, most of them civilians, caught in the crossfire of protests and police action that Mondlane has stoked. His role in this crisis must not go unchallenged. The international community, particularly the International Criminal Court (ICC), must intervene immediately to hold him accountable. If his actions are left unchecked, Mozambique could face a humanitarian catastrophe from which it may never recover.

Mozambique in Crisis: The Council of State’s Call for Reform and Mondlane’s Dangerous Escalation

Following the disputed election, Mozambique has descended into chaos. The Council of State, an advisory body to the president, issued a call for electoral reform, urging greater transparency and the de-politicization of the electoral process. This was a sign of the government’s willingness to address opposition grievances and pursue meaningful reform. Yet, despite this olive branch, Mondlane has responded by escalating calls for unrest, actively undermining any hope for peaceful dialogue.

The situation on the ground is dire. Human rights observers report that at least 110 people have died in the violent protests that followed Mondlane’s call to reject the election results. Most of the casualties were civilians gunned down by police during confrontations that involved road blockades, attacks on security forces, and widespread destruction. Mondlane has not only failed to call for calm but has further incited violence. His inflammatory rhetoric encourages his supporters to persist in their protests, disregarding the inevitable consequences for innocent lives. As BBC News reported, Mondlane’s vow to bring down the government by force has transformed peaceful protests into violent confrontations, causing suffering on a massive scale.

Mondlane’s Rhetoric: Incitement to Violence and a Threat to National Security

It is crucial to differentiate between political dissent and incitement to violence. Political opposition is a fundamental right in any democracy, but Mondlane’s actions extend far beyond mere disagreement with the government. His rhetoric is deliberately designed to create instability, division, and fear. When Mondlane declares that “we will bring the government to its knees” or insists that “the protests will not stop until the government listens,” he is not calling for peaceful protests. He is inciting insurrection and encouraging violent actions against the state.

Mondlane’s repeated promises to extend these protests for months, as reported by AfricaNews, are an invitation for further lawlessness. His words have fueled looting, vandalism, and attacks on public institutions, creating an atmosphere of chaos and fear. Instead of seeking dialogue, Mondlane has rallied his followers to escalate the violence, emboldening them to confront the state with no regard for the safety of the general population. This is not simply political opposition — it is a deliberate effort to destabilize the nation.

The damage is already evident. The Club of Mozambiquereported that Mondlane’s supporters have clashed violently with security forces, disrupting key sectors of the economy, including the operations of major corporations such as South32 Ltd. and the closure of vital border crossings, including the main one with South Africa. The international community must understand that these actions are not about defending the rights of the people; they are about creating an environment of chaos to achieve political goals. The humanitarian toll of this violence cannot be overstated, and the international community must take immediate action to hold those responsible for inciting it accountable.

Global Examples of Peaceful Transitions: A Reminder for Mozambique

It is vital to remember that peaceful transitions of political power are possible, even during the most challenging times. Global examples of such transitions demonstrate that democracies can resolve political disputes without resorting to violence. In the UK, for example, Rishi Sunak left office peacefully as Prime Minister in 2024, following his defeat to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party in the general election. Sunak’s resignation led to a smooth transfer of power, with Starmer assuming leadership without conflict. Similarly, in the United States, President Joe Biden accepted the results of the 2024 election, reinforcing the idea that power can change hands peacefully through democratic means. Despite challenges and claims of fraud, Biden chose to focus on unity, advocating for progress instead of division.

Similarly, in Zambia, President Edgar Lungu’s peaceful exit in 2021 after losing the election to Hakainde Hichilema showed that democratic institutions and respect for the will of the people can guide a country through contested elections. In Botswana, under President Mokgweetsi Masisi, political transitions have consistently been peaceful, handled with cooperation and legal order.

In Brazil, President Lula da Silva’s return to power in 2023 was also marked by peaceful democratic processes, despite significant opposition. These examples stand in stark contrast to the current situation in Mozambique, where respect for democratic norms is under threat. Rather than following the examples of peaceful transitions seen in these countries, Mondlane’s calls for violent resistance are a dangerous regression.

Trump Should Look to Mozambique: A Global Threat to Peace

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump seeks to reshape the global landscape with his renewed focus on securing U.S. markets and reinforcing a world order centered around American interests, he must take a closer look at Mozambique’s ongoing crisis. The unrest in Mozambique is not just a local issue confined to the African continent; it is a global concern that requires immediate attention from global powers, particularly the United States.

Trump, who has consistently prioritized U.S. economic and geopolitical interests, must understand that the instability in Mozambique poses far-reaching risks to global peace and security. At the heart of this crisis are Mozambique’s critical mineral resources, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, which are essential to the manufacturing of technologies powering industries worldwide — from electric vehicles to renewable energy systems. These minerals have become a linchpin in the global transition to clean energy, and any disruption in their supply from Mozambique would send shockwaves through international markets, affecting economies across the globe.

But the threat posed by the crisis extends beyond the disruption of supply chains. Mozambique’s instability threatens to destabilize not only its own borders but the entire southern African region. As the conflict deepens, it could spill over into neighboring countries, creating a wider regional conflict that would strain already fragile political systems and security infrastructures. The ripple effects of such instability could undermine progress made on key global challenges, from combating climate change to addressing poverty and human rights abuses. A destabilized Mozambique could also provide fertile ground for extremist groups and transnational criminal networks, further exacerbating global security concerns.

For the United States, which has significant economic and strategic interests in the region, inaction is not an option. Mozambique plays a key role in the broader geopolitical context of Africa, particularly in terms of its energy resources and strategic position in the Indian Ocean. As a major player in global trade and energy markets, the U.S. has a responsibility to lead efforts to address the crisis before it escalates further. The long-term stability of the African continent, and by extension global economic stability, depends on the resolution of this crisis.

The United States cannot afford to stand on the sidelines while Mozambique teeters on the brink of civil war. It is not just in the interest of Mozambique but in the interest of global peace and prosperity that this crisis be addressed swiftly and decisively. The U.S., together with international partners, must use diplomatic leverage, humanitarian aid, and, where necessary, targeted sanctions, to bring all parties to the negotiating table. However, these actions must be coupled with a robust commitment to supporting the democratic processes and human rights in Mozambique.

Trump’s foreign policy, which has focused on American interests and economic security, must now expand to consider the interconnectedness of global markets and security. Mozambique’s crisis is a reminder that geopolitical stability is not a zero-sum game. The instability of one nation can have profound consequences for many others. A peaceful, democratic Mozambique is in the best interests of not only its citizens but of the global community.

The time for inaction is over. Global leadership — especially from the U.S. — is required to ensure that Mozambique’s crisis does not spiral further into chaos. This is not just a matter of regional importance; it is a matter of global urgency.

Foreign Influence: Are External Interests Fueling the Opposition?

One of the most concerning aspects of the ongoing political crisis in Mozambique is the potential role of foreign influence in exacerbating the violence. Both Russian and Chinese interests are believed to be playing a role in stoking unrest and supporting opposition groups like Mondlane’s RENAMO. Moscow and Beijing have been increasing their political, military, and economic presence in Africa, and Mozambique, with its vast natural resources and strategic location, is no exception.

Russia’s involvement in Africa is growing, particularly through the deployment of mercenaries and military advisors under the Wagner Group. Moscow has cultivated relationships with governments and opposition groups to gain access to vital resources and to expand its geopolitical footprint. Given Mozambique’s reserves of natural gas, lithium, and other critical minerals, it is not beyond reason to suspect that Russia might be playing a destabilizing role in the country’s turmoil. Russian mercenaries have previously been involved in other African nations, contributing to the destabilization of governments that were less favorable to Russian interests.

China, meanwhile, has long been a dominant economic player in Mozambique, investing heavily in infrastructure and energy sectors. China’s growing influence in the country allows it to leverage considerable power over the political landscape. It is conceivable that China might prefer a more stable, yet strategically pliable, government, even if that means tolerating the continuation of government-backed violence.

Both Russia and China have vested interests in ensuring that Mozambique remains a stable resource hub, but their methods often involve fostering instability. The increasing foreign meddling in Mozambique underscores that the crisis may not be entirely domestic — it could be part of a larger geopolitical struggle. The role of external actors should be thoroughly investigated, and any interference that exacerbates the violence and undermines Mozambique’s sovereignty must be condemned.

The Global Stakes: Mozambique’s Strategic Importance

Mozambique’s crisis is not only a political and humanitarian issue — it has far-reaching implications for global stability. The country is one of the largest producers of critical minerals, including cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements — vital for the global energy transition and technologies such as electric vehicles and smartphones. Moreover, Mozambique’s offshore natural gas reserves are crucial for the energy needs of Asia and Europe.

If the political unrest continues to escalate, it could disrupt global supply chains for these essential resources, sending shockwaves throughout markets worldwide. In an age where competition for critical minerals is intensifying, instability in Mozambique could have disastrous effects, not only for African economies but also for industries across the globe. Furthermore, the chaos could derail efforts to fight climate change, as renewable energy sectors are heavily reliant on minerals sourced from Mozambique.

The international community must recognize that Mozambique’s stability is intertwined with global economic and environmental interests. The country is a linchpin in the global supply of minerals critical for future technologies, and its destabilization could have severe consequences for both developed and developing nations.

The International Community’s Responsibility

As Mozambique’s political and social fabric continues to unravel, the international community cannot remain passive. The United Nations, the African Union, and other global institutions must take decisive action to prevent further escalation. Diplomacy should aim to de-escalate tensions and bring all parties to the negotiating table. But words alone will not suffice — the international community must hold accountable those leaders, both domestic and foreign, whose actions and rhetoric are fueling the violence.

In this context, the ICC must play a pivotal role. The court should investigate Mondlane’s role in inciting violence and threatening Mozambique’s fragile peace. Countries and institutions must pressure Mozambique to cooperate with the ICC and allow for a full investigation into these acts of incitement.

No More Time for Inaction

Mozambique is at a critical crossroads. The government has shown a willingness to engage in electoral reform and peaceful dialogue, but these efforts are being undermined by Mondlane’s violent rhetoric. The ICC must act swiftly to investigate his incitement to violence, and the international community must take decisive action to prevent a full-blown humanitarian disaster. The world must send a clear message: Incitement to violence will not be tolerated. Mozambique’s future hangs in the balance, and the time for action is now.