Key Points

• The FEC has approved a N47.96 trillion budget for 2025.

• President Tinubu will present the budget to lawmakers this week.

• Oil production is set at 2.06 million barrels per day.

A 2025 budget of N47.96 trillion, approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), will be submitted to the National Assembly on Wednesday.

FEC approves N47.96 trillion 2025 budget for presentation

Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information and National Orientation, stated that the Presidency is interacting with legislators to guarantee the budget is submitted on time.

The approval comes after the FEC evaluated the performance of the 2024 budget.

Citing increased security for domestic production, the 2025 budget sets an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day and includes a 33% capital investment component.

Prior to the National Assembly passing the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP), the budget was first approved on November 14.

President Bola Tinubu will submit the budget within 48 hours, according to Minister of Budget and Economic Planning Atiku Bagudu, who also affirmed that all outstanding concerns had been settled. N34.82 trillion in revenue and N47.96 trillion in total expenses are projected in the 2025 budget.

Regarding the 2024 budget, Bagudu stated that as of September 2024, the federal government had earned N14.55 trillion, or 75% of its goal. He said he hoped the number would rise by the end of the year.

Senate sets benchmarks for 2025-2027 economic framework

Bagudu also emphasized the MTEF’s 2025–2027 estimates. With a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel, an exchange rate of N1,400/$1, and oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, the framework projects a GDP growth rate of 4.6% for 2025.

After approving the MTEF/FSP, the Senate established benchmark oil prices for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at $75, $76.20, and $75.30 per barrel, respectively.

Oil production was estimated to be 2.06 million barrels per day in 2025, 2.10 million barrels per day in 2026, and 2.35 million barrels per day in 2027.

The exchange rate was set at N1,400/$1 for all three years. For 2025, 2026, and 2027, the Senate also forecast GDP growth rates of 4.6%, 4.4%, and 5.5%, with corresponding inflation rates of 15.75%, 14.21%, and 10.04%.

For comparison, Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” budget for 2024 had N9.18 trillion in deficit, N27.5 trillion in spending, and N18.32 trillion in predicted revenue.

According to Business day, government-owned enterprises were scheduled to contribute N4.07 trillion, while oil revenue was forecast to reach N7.68 trillion.

Non-oil taxes (N3.52 trillion), independent revenue (N1.91 trillion), mining and minerals (N4.55 billion), and miscellaneous revenue (N1.13 trillion) were among the other sources of income in 2024. Non-debt recurrent costs (N9.92 trillion), capital expenditures (N7.72 trillion), debt service (N8.25 trillion), statutory transfers (N1.37 trillion), and a sinking fund (N243.66 billion) comprised the 2024 budget breakdown.

As the National Assembly’s 2025 budget presentation draws near, this story is taking shape.