Key Points

• FG claims economy has “turned the corner” with improving GDP and inflation.

• Experts argue progress is mostly statistical; citizens feel limited relief.

• Subsidy removal and debt repayment increased fiscal space but pressured households.

The Federal Government has praised its economic reforms over the past two and a half years, citing improving GDP, declining inflation, a stable exchange rate, and rising external reserves. Authorities concluded that the economy has “turned the corner.”

But economists and stakeholders say the reality for Nigerians paints a different picture.

Analysts acknowledge statistical improvements but warn that the gains have yet to translate into meaningful relief for households or significant job creation.

Progress largely on paper

Dr. Andrew Mamedu, Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, said the government’s claim reflects modest progress but ignores persistent structural weaknesses.

“While inflation is slowing and the exchange rate is more stable, these are not sufficient indicators of comprehensive economic improvement,” Mamedu said.

He noted that growth has been concentrated in oil and services, leaving agriculture, manufacturing, and small businesses behind.

Food prices have fallen slightly, largely due to border openings that increased imports rather than local production.

Mamedu warned that farmers face losses and rising input costs, which could limit future production.

He also criticized the removal of fuel subsidies, saying that it increased government revenue but worsened hardship for low-income households.

“Stabilising the economy is only the first step. Nigerians will only see reforms as credible when they experience better jobs, fairer incomes, and improved public services,” he said.

Mamedu did note some successes. Exchange rate unification increased transparency and investor confidence.

Tax reforms and stricter fiscal discipline have strengthened government finances.

Stability versus growth

Professor Magnus Kpakol, former economic adviser to President Olusegun Obasanjo, called the government’s assessment “arrogant” and said stability alone is insufficient.

“Stabilisation does not equal progress. Nigeria’s per capita income is just over $800. Growth must translate into improved life expectancy, incomes, and productivity,” he said.

Kpakol called for greater local ownership of resources and suggested reintroducing targeted subsidies to ease pressure on vulnerable populations.

Manufacturers and small businesses see cautious optimism

Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, said the economy is on a path of gradual recovery.

“The stabilisation path is clear. Accelerated growth is needed, and manufacturing should be the nucleus of the growth strategy,” he said.

Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoed caution.

“Positive macroeconomic indicators are encouraging but must translate into lower inflation, job creation, and a friendlier business environment for citizens to feel relief,” he said.

Economic paradoxes remain

Economist Dr. Amase Justin highlighted contradictions in the reforms. GDP is growing, but poverty and inflation persist.

The exchange rate policy stabilized markets but raised import costs. Subsidy removal and debt repayment improved fiscal space but did not yet benefit citizens.

“Reform gains are yet to improve the welfare of ordinary Nigerians,” Justin said.

David Adonri, Vice Executive Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said Nigeria is still in a debt trap, with borrowing continuing to meet obligations.

Clifford Egbomeade, public policy analyst, observed that macroeconomic improvements have not reached households.

Inflation remains high, and food and fuel prices continue to strain budgets despite rising GDP and foreign reserves.

Experts agree that Nigeria’s economic reforms show direction but lack full effectiveness.

Recommendations include targeted social protection, support for small businesses and farmers, investment in infrastructure and education, and measures to reduce corruption.

“The reforms are credible but not yet effective,” Egbomeade said. “The government must turn statistical improvements into tangible benefits for households. Only then can Nigerians truly feel the corner has been turned.”