Key Points

• Festive demand and insecurity lifted month-on-month inflation to 1.22 percent in November.
• Food prices drove the increase, with several staples recording higher average prices.
• Annual headline and core inflation continued to ease despite monthly pressure.

Food prices, lifted by year-end festivities and persistent insecurity, drove inflationary pressure in November 2025.

The month-on-month headline inflation rate rose to 1.22 percent, the highest level in four months. Analysts expect similar pressure in December as holiday demand peaks.

At the same time, food inflation on a month-on-month basis climbed to 1.13 percent, the strongest reading in three months. Rising prices of key staples pushed the increase.

Despite the monthly rise, headline inflation continued its steady decline on an annual basis.

The year-on-year headline rate eased for the eighth straight month to 14.45 percent in November, down from 16.05 percent in October.

The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the figures in its latest Consumer Price Index report.

CPI Rises as Monthly Inflation Accelerates

The statistics agency reported that the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 in November, up from 128.9 in October. The 1.6-point increase reflected faster price growth during the month.

On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation stood at 14.45 percent in November, compared with 16.05 percent in October. The agency attributed the sharp annual decline partly to base-year effects.

Compared with November 2024, when headline inflation reached 34.60 percent, the current figure represents a drop of 20.15 percentage points. The CPI series uses November 2009 as its base year.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation accelerated to 1.22 percent from 0.93 percent in October.

This shows that average prices increased faster in November than in the previous month.

The average CPI for the twelve months ending November 2025 rose by 20.41 percent compared with the preceding twelve-month period. That figure marked a sharp slowdown from the 32.77 percent recorded a year earlier.

Food Inflation Climbs Month-on-Month

Food inflation on a year-on-year basis stood at 11.08 percent in November 2025. This represented a steep decline of 28.85 percentage points from the 39.93 percent recorded in November 2024, largely due to the change in base year.

Month-on-month food inflation increased to 1.13 percent in November, up from minus 0.37 percent in October.

The rise reflected higher average prices of items including dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, unshelled egusi, oxtail and fresh onions.

Core Inflation Continues to Ease

Core inflation, which excludes volatile farm produce and energy prices, eased further in November.

On a year-on-year basis, core inflation fell to 18.04 percent, down from 28.75 percent in November 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed to 1.28 percent in November from 1.42 percent in October, indicating softer underlying price pressures outside food and energy.

Wide Inflation Gaps Across States

The CPI report showed sharp differences in inflation across states. On a year-on-year basis, Rivers recorded the highest all-items inflation at 17.78 percent. Ogun followed at 17.65 percent, while Ekiti posted 16.77 percent.

Plateau recorded the slowest rise at 9.13 percent. Kebbi and Katsina followed with increases of 10.32 percent and 10.60 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the steepest increase in all-items inflation at 6.58 percent.

Gombe followed at 5.11 percent, while Edo posted 4.45 percent. In contrast, Plateau, Delta and Kaduna recorded declines of 2.54 percent, 2.38 percent and 2.24 percent, respectively.

Food inflation followed a similar pattern. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 17.83 percent, followed by Ogun at 16.52 percent and Rivers at 16.11 percent. Imo, Katsina and Akwa Ibom recorded the slowest increases.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose fastest in Yobe at 9.52 percent, followed by Katsina at 6.61 percent and Ondo at 6.04 percent. Imo, Nasarawa and Enugu recorded month-on-month declines.

Analysts Flag Festive Season Pressure

Ayo Akinwunmi, chief economist at United Capital Plc, linked the November increase in monthly inflation to insecurity that disrupted food supply and raised transport costs.

He expects food prices to rise further in December due to festive demand but sees moderation in January 2026 if security improves.

Akinwunmi noted that headline inflation undershot United Capital Research’s forecast of 15.45 percent, a development he described as supportive of lower interest rates and improved equity market sentiment.

He urged continued security support in food-producing regions to sustain the disinflation trend.

Tunde Abioye, head of equity research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, linked the rise in month-on-month food inflation to seasonal buying ahead of year-end celebrations.

He expects monthly inflation to remain elevated through the holiday period.

Public analyst Clifford Egbomeade described the latest data as a midpoint in Nigeria’s stabilisation effort.

He pointed to easing annual inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and gradual supply chain recovery.

However, Egbomeade warned that the rise in monthly inflation shows lingering vulnerability to seasonal demand, transport disruptions and storage gaps, particularly for perishable and protein-rich foods.

He expects December to bring continued monthly pressure even as annual inflation trends lower.

Presidency Credits Tinubu’s Reforms

The Presidency attributed the continued decline in annual inflation to President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

In a post on X, the president’s special adviser on policy communication, Daniel Bwala, noted that Tinubu set a 15 percent inflation target in January 2025.

Bwala pointed to the November headline inflation rate of 14.45 percent as evidence that the administration beat its target.

He described the outcome as the result of tough reforms and disciplined economic management, adding that the figures show Nigeria is steadily turning the corner.