KEY POINTS

• Dangote Refinery petrol prices could reach ₦1,400.
• Import reliance exposes Nigeria to price volatility.
• Refinery denies shutdown, cites strong daily supply.

Dangote Refinery has warned that petrol prices in Nigeria could more than double if the country continues to rely on imported fuel, sharpening the debate over energy costs in Africa’s largest economy.

In a statement, the $20 billion refinery owned by Aliko Dangote said pump prices could rise to as high as ₦1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy market without full use of domestic refining capacity. That compares with prices that dipped to about ₦699 per litre during the recent festive period, highlighting the volatility facing consumers.

The refinery said recent price movements reflect structural risks in Nigeria’s downstream sector, where exposure to global oil markets and foreign-exchange swings leaves prices vulnerable when imports dominate supply.

Dangote Refinery petrol prices and imports

Without local refining, fuel importers would continue to exert outsized influence on pricing, the company said, warning that costs could escalate rapidly in the absence of domestic buffers. The refinery argued that its operations have helped moderate price increases that might otherwise have occurred.

“In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint,” the company said, adding that prices could climb to ₦1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment.

The comments underscore the role the single-train refinery, the largest of its kind globally, is expected to play in stabilising Nigeria’s fuel market after years of import dependence. Management said deeper reliance on local refining would reduce exposure to currency pressures and shipping costs.

Dangote Refinery petrol prices and output

The warning came amid reports that the refinery had shut its petrol unit for maintenance, claims the company dismissed as inaccurate. According to Billionaires Africa, officials said operations have continued uninterrupted and that the reports were being used to justify further pump price increases.

The refinery said it supplied 43.3 million litres of petrol to the Nigerian market on Saturday alone, exceeding half of estimated daily consumption. “We have not turned back a single truck,” an official said, speaking anonymously due to company policy.

The comments contrast with earlier concerns from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. In its November 2025 fact sheet, the regulator said petrol deliveries from the refinery averaged 23.52 million litres a day, below an expected 35 million litres, even as nationwide availability improved.

The shortfall coincided with a decline in estimated daily consumption to 52.9 million litres in November, down from 56.7 million litres in October, easing pressure on supply while raising questions about distribution dynamics.