Aliko Dangote, chairman and chief executive of Dangote Group, has cautioned that an unresolved Middle East conflict could force Nigeria and other African nations to implement COVID-era work-from-home restrictions, as rising oil prices strain economies with limited capacity to absorb the shock.

Dangote delivered the warning Monday after meeting with President Bola Tinubu at his Ikoyi residence in Lagos, where he had gone to convey Eid-el-Fitr greetings following the president’s return from a state visit to the United Kingdom.

“If this thing doesn’t de-escalate, you know, normally we in Africa, we don’t have any reserves in terms of savings,” Dangote said. “Some of them, if they don’t work that day, they won’t eat.”

Indonesia’s response cited as a possible model for Africa

Dangote pointed to Indonesia as an example of how governments are already responding to energy pressure, noting that authorities there had reduced the working week to four days and were weighing full work-from-home mandates.

“We will do like that time of COVID, where people will work from home,” he said.

He cautioned that opportunistic pricing by market actors could compound the damage, warning that energy costs would continue climbing if the conflict persisted.

“If this thing doesn’t de-escalate, it is going to keep going up and up and up, and governments cannot really add to salaries. So, people will really, really feel the pinch,” Dangote said.

Small businesses and generator-dependent industries face the sharpest pain

The billionaire warned that the crisis would hit ordinary Africans hardest, particularly those running informal and small-scale businesses with no buffer against fuel price surges.

“People who are barbers, people who make bread, people who have industries, who have to pay for their own generators — you can see what is happening,” he said.

He called for collective action and prayer to bring the conflict to an end, saying Africa stood to bear a disproportionate cost for a crisis not of its making.

Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing nation, remains exposed to global oil price swings due to its heavy dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

Dangote backs Tinubu’s UK deal as a confidence signal for Nigeria

On the sidelines of the meeting, Dangote expressed optimism about the £746 million infrastructure agreement signed during Tinubu’s two-day state visit to the United Kingdom, describing it as a marker of renewed international confidence rather than just a financial transaction.

“It has not been easy dealing with the British, getting this kind of money out of them. But I think this is to show confidence — it’s not about the money. It’s about the confidence in Nigeria,” he said.

He predicted that the UK deal would trigger a wave of interest from other major economies, including Germany, and said Nigerian private investors could now access UK Export Finance, a credit facility that had largely remained untapped.

“It means that the agency now is open for business for Nigerians, and we will go as private people to look for them to give us support,” Dangote said.

The infrastructure agreement, funded through UK Export Finance, focuses on port development and other critical sectors.