KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s poverty rate rose to 63 percent in 2025, up from 56 percent in 2023, representing about 140 million people below the poverty line despite a sharp drop in inflation
• Headline inflation fell from 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 15.15 percent in December 2025, but the World Bank says prices remained elevated enough to erode household incomes
• The World Bank projects a slow decline to about 59 percent poverty by 2028, with Lead Economist Fiseha Haile warning that weak job creation and low agricultural productivity will constrain progress

The World Bank says Nigeria’s poverty rate climbed to 63 percent in 2025, up from 56 percent in 2023, leaving roughly 140 million people below the poverty line. The bank released the findings Tuesday in Abuja as part of its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update.

Headline inflation fell from 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 15.15 percent in December 2025, a drop of 19.65 percentage points. Food inflation also declined sharply, from 39.84 percent to 10.84 percent over the same period. However, the bank noted that inflation remained elevated enough to erode household purchasing power despite the moderation.

Incomes failing to keep pace with elevated prices

“Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated. The bank also cited the Middle East conflict as a factor pushing up energy, food and transport costs, worsening conditions for low-income households.

Furthermore, agriculture, where more than half of Nigeria’s poor work, has lagged services and industry in growth, constraining income gains among the most vulnerable.

World Bank projects slow decline in Nigeria poverty rate

The World Bank projected that the Nigeria poverty rate will fall gradually to about 59 percent by 2028, with lower food inflation and moderate economic growth providing support. However, Lead Economist Fiseha Haile warned that weak job creation, low agricultural productivity and persistent inequality would slow the decline.

Moreover, he said reducing poverty depends not only on economic growth but also on its quality, particularly its ability to raise incomes at the bottom. Haile added that investments in early childhood development are essential for long-term productivity and poverty reduction.