KEY POINTS

• Prof. Ken Ife said the World Bank’s fuel import recommendations violate Nigeria’s PIA and Domestic Crude Obligation framework
• Ife warned deeper importation would drain foreign exchange, expose Nigeria to supply shocks and deter local refining investment
• Kelvin Emmanuel said the World Bank reportedly withdrew the disputed report and that no marketer can land petrol below N1,759 per litre

Energy economist Prof. Ken Ife on Monday criticized World Bank fuel recommendations in its latest Nigeria Development Update, warning that the call for deeper fuel importation and full downstream liberalization directly violates the Petroleum Industry Act and threatens Nigeria’s strategic drive toward energy independence.

“You cannot come to a country that is struggling, and which has just developed a vision of economic self-reliance, and then advise it to reverse course and return to fuel importation,” Ife said during a televised interview. He stressed that the PIA’s Domestic Crude Obligation framework legally mandates that domestic refining take priority over imports. “Advising Nigeria to abandon that path is not just against government policy; it is a clear violation of the PIA,” he added.

Nigeria on track to exceed domestic refining needs

Meanwhile, Ife warned that following the World Bank fuel import prescription would leave Nigeria vulnerable to global supply disruptions, drain foreign exchange reserves and deter private investment in local refining capacity.

“We are on track to build refining capacity that will exceed domestic demand and position Nigeria as an energy exporter. How can anyone credibly suggest that we abandon this progress and return to reckless import dependence?” he said.

Furthermore, Ife questioned the empirical basis of the recommendation, describing the conclusion as “strangely parachuted” into what was otherwise a rigorous macroeconomic analysis with no supporting evidence.

Emmanuel: Imported fuel costs more, report withdrawn

Also speaking on the issue, energy expert Kelvin Emmanuel said the World Bank had reportedly withdrawn the Nigeria Development Update from its website. He also dismissed the premise that imported petrol could undercut locally refined fuel.

“There is no marketer today that can land petrol into Nigeria at less than N1,759 per litre when you factor in freight, insurance and supply chain risks,” he said, noting Dated Brent trades at approximately $144 per barrel.

Additionally, Emmanuel rejected World Bank advocacy for social safety nets funded through borrowing. “Borrowing is meant for capital projects and human development, not consumption,” he said.