KEY POINTS

• IMF cut Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1 percent, with a recovery expected in 2027
• Higher fuel prices, fertilizer costs and shipping disruptions from the Middle East weigh on non-oil activity
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces rising median inflation and bilateral aid cuts of between 16 and 28 percent

The International Monetary Fund trimmed its Nigeria growth forecast for 2026 to 4.1 percent, marking a 0.3 percentage-point cut from the fund’s earlier projection of 4.4 percent.

IMF Research Department Division Chief Deniz Igan announced the revision during the fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook briefing at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.

“Growth has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1 percent in 2026,” Igan said. “This reflects two opposing forces. On one hand, higher fuel and fertilizer prices and increased shipping costs are expected to weigh on non-oil activity. On the other hand, higher oil prices provide some offset. Overall, the balance is negative for growth in 2026, with some recovery expected in 2027.”

Middle East crisis intensifies commodity pressures

Meanwhile, Igan stressed that tight monetary policy and exchange rate monitoring “will be crucial to achieving the inflation target.” Igan also noted that data-dependence would guide the fund’s assessment of Nigeria going forward.

IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas framed Nigeria’s downgrade within a broader regional trend. Sub-Saharan Africa, he said, faces “broadly a downgrade in growth and rising inflation,” with energy importers in a particularly “challenging” situation amid the Middle East crisis.

The global growth forecast also fell to 3.1 percent for 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as trade disruptions widen.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces rising inflation and aid cuts

Furthermore, the IMF’s April outlook projects sub-Saharan Africa’s median inflation rising from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 5 percent. The region also absorbs cumulative growth downgrades of 0.4 percentage points across 2026 and 2027.

Additionally, bilateral aid cuts of between 16 and 28 percent recorded in 2025 compound fiscal pressure on African economies.

The Nigeria growth forecast revision comes as Abuja navigates global trade disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. Moreover, commodity-price volatility and higher shipping costs continue to strain the non-oil sector, even as oil revenues provide a partial buffer.