KEY POINTS

• The Hormuz crisis has tightened global oil supply, increasing demand for Nigerian crude and refined products.
• Dangote Refinery and Aiteo, led by Aliko Dangote and Benedict Peters, are emerging as major beneficiaries of the shift.
• Nigeria’s production gains are being undermined by widespread oil theft and insecurity across key infrastructure networks.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a major disruption in global oil flows, removing millions of barrels of crude and refined products from the market each day.

Satellite analysis reviewed by German business publication WirtschaftsWoche in collaboration with earth observation firm LiveEO indicates that the resulting supply gap has significantly altered global energy trade patterns.

Amid the disruption, Nigeria has emerged as one of the key beneficiaries, with two of its most prominent energy billionaires; Aliko Dangote and Benedict Peters, now positioned at the centre of a rapidly shifting global oil landscape.

The shortage of Middle Eastern crude has forced international buyers to turn to alternative suppliers, and Nigeria’s light, sweet crude grades have become highly sought after due to their refining efficiency.

At the heart of the shift is the Dangote Petroleum Refinery near Lagos, which is reportedly operating close to full capacity as global demand for refined products intensifies. The refinery, described as the world’s largest single-train fuel production facility, has been ramping up output at a time when global fuel markets are under significant strain.

Industry data indicates that the refinery is producing tens of millions of litres of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene daily, strengthening West Africa’s fuel supply resilience and reducing reliance on imports. Analysts cited in the report say the facility is already reshaping regional fuel dynamics and insulating parts of the market from global price shocks.

Alongside Dangote, Benedict Peters’ Aiteo Group is also benefiting from increased demand. The company produces Nembe crude, a high-quality light oil that is especially attractive to refiners in Europe and Asia seeking substitutes for heavier, high-sulphur crude previously supplied from the Gulf region. Its refining efficiency and lower processing cost have made it particularly valuable under current market conditions.

Nigeria increases production but theft remains a major obstacle

In response to rising demand, Nigeria has reportedly increased crude oil production from around 1.4 million barrels per day to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels per day. Industry estimates suggest that output could rise further to as high as 2.4 to 3 million barrels per day if operational constraints were resolved.

However, the report highlights a persistent structural challenge: large-scale oil theft and pipeline sabotage. Satellite data shows that critical infrastructure in the Niger Delta has been repeatedly targeted, with significant volumes of crude lost during transportation. In some cases, up to half of transported oil is reportedly diverted before reaching export terminals.

One major example cited is Aiteo’s 97-kilometre pipeline, which was eventually shut down after sustained losses attributed to organised theft networks allegedly involving local collaborators and security compromises. The disruption forced the company to abandon pipeline transport entirely.

In response, Aiteo has redesigned its logistics model, moving crude transport away from pipelines and onto river and offshore shipping routes. Since 2023, the company has relied on river tankers to move Nembe crude to a floating storage and offloading facility anchored offshore.

Satellite images reportedly show continuous movement of vessels between loading points in the Niger Delta and offshore terminals. While this system is more expensive and less efficient than pipelines, it has proven more secure against theft, allowing production to continue despite infrastructure challenges.

Industry analysts warn that Nigeria could nearly double its oil output if it successfully addresses systemic theft and improves security across its production infrastructure. However, they note that entrenched criminal networks continue to undermine the country’s ability to fully capitalise on its reserves.