Key Points

• Imported petrol supplied 62% of Nigeria’s fuel in 2025, keeping the country dependent on foreign sources.

• Dangote and other local refineries increased production but still met only 38% of demand.

• Experts warn imports remain critical for supply stability and price control despite domestic refinery growth.

In 2025, most of the petrol used in Nigeria came from imports. About 62 percent of all petrol came from foreign sources, even though local refineries were producing more.

The Dangote Refinery, smaller private refineries, and a few government plants all worked to supply more petrol, but imports still made up most of the fuel. This shows that Nigeria still depends on buying petrol from other countries.

In total, Nigerians used around 18.97 billion litres of petrol in 2025. Out of this, about 11.85 billion litres were imported, while local refineries supplied 7.54 billion litres, which is about 38 percent of total use.

Local Refineries Step Up

Imports may go down in 2026 if the government puts a 15 percent tax on petrol brought in from outside. The plan, approved by President Bola Tinubu, should start early in 2026.

For many years, Nigeria relied on imported petrol because the state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna were mostly inactive.

This forced the country to spend a lot of foreign money and rely on expensive petrol subsidies.

Things began to change in late 2024 when the Dangote Refinery started working. With a huge capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it was expected to cut imports, improve supply, and make fuel more stable.

Fluctuating Demand and Supply

Even in 2025, imports stayed higher than local production. This was because refineries were still ramping up, crude supply had limits, transport was difficult, and demand changed after petrol prices were deregulated.

Dangote supplied almost all local petrol in 2025. Daily output ranged from 17 million to 32 million litres. Total supply for the year was 7.54 billion litres, slightly below the target of 7.2 billion litres.

Supply grew towards the end of the year. In December, domestic refineries supplied 32 million litres per day, the highest for the year.

Petrol use changed a lot through the year. Monthly consumption went from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December.

Some months saw big drops, others saw big rises, depending on prices, supply, and transport.

Imports followed these changes. In May, imports were 1.20 billion litres, or 71 percent of petrol used.

In November, imports reached almost all of the petrol used. By December, local supply improved and imports were about two-thirds of demand.

Experts’ Views and Future Outlook

Some people say Dangote Refinery can meet Nigeria’s petrol needs. Officials say it produces more petrol and diesel than the country uses every day. Some marketers claim they don’t need to import petrol anymore.

Experts, however, warn this is not fully true. Energy economist Wumi Iledare said imports have gone down but have not ended.

He said that even if no petrol is being shipped in, the possibility of importing still affects prices and supply.

Imports are also important in case of sudden demand, transport problems, or refinery breakdowns.

Another expert, Jeremiah Olatide, said local refining has grown from less than 5 percent in 2022 to about 40 percent in 2025.

He called this a big improvement but said more needs to be done. Local refining should reach 70 percent of total fuel use to really help Nigeria’s economy.

He added that giving more crude oil to refineries like Dangote would reduce imports even more.

Even with progress, imports still provided most of the petrol in 2025. Local refineries are helping, but Nigeria still depends on foreign fuel.