President Bola Tinubu will present his first budget proposal to the National Assembly today, amid high expectations from Nigerians who are facing rising inflation, unemployment and poverty.

The budget of N27.5 trillion is 26.1 per cent higher than that of 2023 presented by his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, last year. The budget is based on an oil price benchmark of $77.96 per barrel and an exchange rate of N750 per dollar, which are higher than the previous assumptions.

The 2024 forecast revenue is now N18.3 trillion, up from N16.9 trillion. This leaves a deficit of around N9 trillion, which is lower than the N10 trillion for this year’s budget.

The budget is expected to focus on infrastructural development, job creation and poverty reduction, as the country struggles to recover from the negative impacts of the recent reforms that led to widespread protests and civil unrest.

Experts have advised that more and better funding should be allocated to infrastructures such as roads, electricity and health care so that the country’s business climate can improve and attract more investments.

They also urged the government to ensure effective monitoring and implementation of the budget, as well as put quantitative values to the outcomes, not just how much money is spent.

Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, has been hit hard by the global collapse in oil prices since 2014, which plunged it into its first recession in a quarter of a century. The economy has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted economic activities and reduced government revenues.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s inflation rate rose to an 18-year high of 27.33 percent in October from 26.72 per cent in the previous month, driven by the rising cost of energy and foreign exchange.

The World Bank said in June that inflation pushed an estimated four million more Nigerians into poverty in the first five months of this year. The bank also projected that the country’s poverty rate would increase from 40.1 percent in 2019 to 45.2 percent in 2022, meaning that 100 million Nigerians would be living below the poverty line of $1.90 per day.

The country’s unemployment rate stood at 33.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, the second highest in the world after Namibia, according to the International Labour Organization.

The government has launched various initiatives to stimulate the economy and create jobs, such as the Economic Sustainability Plan, the National Social Investment Programme and the National Youth Investment Fund.

However, analysts have noted that the country has had a history of misallocating scarce resources through the budget and wasteful spending, resulting in the worst human development indices and creating fiscal space for state capture.

They have called for more transparency and accountability in the budget process, as well as more participation and feedback from the citizens and civil society organisations.

The president will present the budget to a joint session of the Senate and the House of Representatives at 11 a.m. local time. The lawmakers will then debate and scrutinise the budget before passing it into law.

Nigerians hope that the budget will bring some relief and hope to their lives, as they look forward to a better and brighter future.

Source: Business Day