KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s inflation rate edged down to 15.1 percent in January 2026, showing a small monthly decline and a major yearly drop.

• Food prices drove the improvement, with food inflation falling sharply compared to last year.

• The figures arrive just before the central bank’s policy meeting, where interest rate decisions may depend on inflation trends.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.1 percent in January 2026, down from 15.15 percent recorded in December 2025, according to newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The agency said the latest figures reflect a 0.05 percentage point drop month-to-month, signaling a modest easing in the pace at which prices are rising across the economy. The report comes just days before the next policy meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee, where interest rate decisions are expected to be influenced by inflation trends.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation showed a far more significant improvement, falling by 12.51 percentage points from 27.61 percent recorded in January 2025. This suggests that while prices are still rising, they are increasing at a much slower pace than they were a year earlier.

Month-on-month inflation stood at 2.88 percent in January, compared with 0.54 percent in December, indicating that average price levels continued to rise but at a moderated rate relative to longer-term trends.

The statistics office noted that its recently revised methodology introduced in the previous report aims to better reflect actual consumer spending patterns and real-world price movements across the country.

Food costs drive major drop in inflation figures

Food inflation, which carries the largest weight in Nigeria’s consumer spending basket, recorded the sharpest decline. Year-on-year food inflation fell to 8.89 percent, a dramatic drop from 29.63 percent in January last year.

On a month-to-month basis, food inflation measured 6.02 percent compared with 0.36 percent in December. The NBS attributed the easing trend to falling prices of key staples such as yam, eggs, beans, maize, palm oil, cassava, beef, and groundnut oil.

The 12-month average food inflation rate also declined significantly to 20.29 percent, compared with 38.47 percent recorded a year earlier.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72 percent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.27 percent in the same period of 2025. Month-on-month core inflation dropped to 1.69 percent from 0.58 percent in December.

The 12-month average core inflation rate also eased to 22.84 percent, compared with 27.24 percent previously, suggesting broader price stability beyond food and energy.