KEY POINTS

• SEREC says structural inefficiencies, including 15-day cargo dwell times and slow vessel turnaround, are pushing exporters and importers toward neighboring ports.
• Non-oil export throughput fell 8 to 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026, even as customs revenue grew 12 to 18 percent.
• Up to 25 percent of Nigeria-bound cargo could shift to Benin Republic and Togo within 24 months if reforms stall, with knock-on effects on jobs and trade data.

Nigeria’s biggest ports are losing ground. The Sea Empowerment & Research Center, known as SEREC, has warned in a new policy advisory that persistent inefficiencies at the country’s terminals are quietly pushing cargo toward neighboring West African ports.

The advisory, titled “Maritime Reform at a Crossroads: Data Signals, Export Concerns, and the Urgent Need for Execution Discipline,” draws on first-quarter trends from 2026. Customs revenue grew an estimated 12 to 18 percent in the period, but operational metrics have moved the wrong way.

Average cargo dwell time at Nigerian ports passed 15 days, while vessel turnaround took four to six days at the busiest facilities. Non-oil export throughput dropped 8 to 12 percent over the same window, a slide SEREC reads as a steady erosion of Nigeria’s competitiveness in the export market.

Benin and Togo close in

The bigger concern is across the border. SEREC pointed to ports along the Cotonou-Lomé corridor in Benin Republic and Togo as the rising threat, citing lower handling costs, faster clearance and more predictable regulation. Expanding cross-border trucking networks and efficient transshipment are pulling Nigerian-bound cargo away from the country’s own ports.

If the trend holds, the report estimates that 15 to 25 percent of Nigeria-bound cargo could divert to neighboring ports within the next 12 to 24 months. Agro-exports are taking the heaviest hit, undermining the federal push for economic diversification away from oil.

“This is not a theoretical risk, it is already happening,” the advisory said. “Cargo flows to where systems work best, not necessarily where geography dictates.”

The center also warned that import flows still dominate the system and that continued neglect of export facilitation could weigh on Nigeria’s trade balance over time.

What Nigeria stands to lose

The fallout would not stop at port revenues. SEREC flagged leakage of customs duties, distortion of trade statistics, job losses across the logistics chain and a broader weakening of Nigeria’s strategic maritime position.

Beyond those direct hits, there is also a longer arc to consider. Nigeria could gradually shift from a regional maritime hub into a destination market that depends on infrastructure outside its own borders, the report cautioned, with knock-on effects on jobs and tax revenue.

That outcome would be hard to reverse, with shippers, carriers and freight forwarders rerouting habitually once alternative routes prove cheaper and more reliable. Whether the next round of port reforms arrives quickly, and whether the agencies execute them with discipline, will shape how much of the cargo Nigeria can keep at home.