KEY POINTS
- Analysts urge Nigeria to plug its 31 trillion naira budget deficit by listing state-owned assets rather than relying on debt.
- The Nigerian Exchange has expanded from 99 trillion naira to 156 trillion naira since December, dwarfing the deficit itself.
- Ayo Teriba of Economic Associates argues a Saudi Aramco-style listing of state assets could transform Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Ayo Teriba, the chief executive of Economic Associates, argues that Nigeria is looking in the wrong place for the money to plug its 31 trillion naira budget deficit. Listing state-owned assets, he says, would unlock more capital than fresh debt can.
The federal government plans to spend 68.3 trillion naira this year while officials expect muted oil income to keep revenues at 36.84 trillion. The government plans to plug the resulting 31.46 trillion naira deficit largely through debt issuance.
A market that already produced the answer
Specifically, since President Bola Tinubu presented the 2026 budget in December, Africa’s third-largest stock market has expanded from about 99 trillion naira to 156 trillion naira on April 30. The market has already created more value than the entire deficit.
“If the stock market has already created more than the deficit in a few months, it is clear where the government should be looking,” Teriba said.
Furthermore, Samuel Sule, the chief executive of Lagos-based Renaissance Capital Africa, agreed that the exchange offers a credible avenue. He said the stock exchange is one of the valid options to raise capital and plug a portion of the budget gap.
The case for equity over debt
Notably, Teriba’s central argument is a structural shift from debt to equity. Nigeria holds significant stakes in commercially viable assets, from oil and gas ventures to power distribution companies, but most remain outside the capital market. “The equity market is like rainfall. Only those who put their assets out will benefit,” Teriba said.
Specifically, he pointed to the delayed listing of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited following the Petroleum Industry Act. He said had the listing happened earlier, the government would already be sharing in the rapid market expansion.
Tilewa Adebajo, who leads CFG Advisory, said privatization, concessions and asset sales could unlock capital, reduce debt and accelerate the transition to private-sector-led growth. He framed the move as essential rather than optional.
“Restructuring the federal government’s balance sheet is essential, with a focus on optimising equity within its capital structure. This can be achieved through the sale of oil and gas joint venture assets, as well as through privatisation and concessions,” Adebajo said.
Additionally, Wale Edun, the former finance minister, had announced earlier that Nigeria aims to start selling state-owned assets to private investors this year. The country is already in talks with a Chinese company and other investors to operate aging refineries that have absorbed 13 trillion naira while idle.
Debt model under pressure
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s fiscal position is increasingly strained. Public debt has crossed $100 billion, while about 60 percent of government revenue goes to servicing obligations, according to CFG Advisory.
Crucially, about 40 trillion naira sits trapped in banking system liquidity controls. Despite that, the government leans on borrowing to finance the deficit, a path Teriba calls a structural misstep.
Saudi Arabia’s listing of Saudi Aramco at roughly $2 trillion offers a contrasting model. The deal transformed Riyadh’s fiscal capacity and tied government wealth to market performance. With the World Bank and IMF warning Nigeria’s 56 percent budget expansion is unsustainable, analysts say the question is no longer the size of the deficit but how to finance it.
