Key points

• Petrol exports hit N998.5 billion in H1 2026, with N621.7 billion sold to African buyers, according to NBS.
• A year earlier Nigeria spent N1.76 trillion importing petrol in a single quarter.
• Refining utilization has jumped from about 1% to 62% since the Dangote refinery began producing petrol in September 2024.

Eighteen months ago, Nigeria was spending N1.76 trillion a quarter to import petrol. In the first half of 2026, it earned N998.5 billion selling the same product abroad, and the difference has a name: the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

National Bureau of Statistics trade data show Premium Motor Spirit exports reached N546 billion in the second quarter alone, ranking seventh among Nigeria’s exports. Of the half-year total, N621.7 billion came from African trading partners.

In Q2 2025, by contrast, petrol exports were a mere N85.8 billion, which makes this year’s figure more than six times higher.

The refinery’s own numbers explain the shift. CardinalStone Securities analyst Tomiwa Adeniji said Nigeria’s refining capacity has gone from about 400,000 barrels a day at roughly 1% utilization to 1.1 million barrels a day at about 62%.

“Nigeria has now transitioned to being a net exporter of refined petroleum products,” she said.

From feeding home to feeding the region

The plant began producing petrol in September 2024, but early output was swallowed by domestic demand.

Investment analyst Abeeblahi Rufai said the thin exports of early 2025 reflected a simple lack of surplus, compounded by outages at the refinery’s Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit and supply obligations under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

Economist Ayo Teriba described the sequence as import substitution first, then export. The refinery now supplies more than half of local requirements, he said, and has started shipping petrol, diesel and jet fuel, all products Nigeria used to buy in.

Consequently, an item that once dominated the import list is becoming a dominant export.

A war opened the door wider

Geography and geopolitics did the rest. African buyers had long relied on ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, Omani and Indian refiners for fuel.

However, Rufai said the Iran war in the first half of 2026, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, constrained those flows and pushed some exporters to hold product back. Sanctions and Ukrainian strikes limited Russia’s ability to fill the gap.

As a result, Dangote’s refinery became an alternative source for the continent, with shorter shipping distances cutting the logistics premium for regional buyers.

The pipeline of crude behind it is also deepening. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Heineken Lokpobiri said this week that indigenous firms now account for 60% of production, active rigs have climbed from about 10 to more than 65, and Nigeria aims to pump at least 3 million barrels a day in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Dangote himself is preparing a N2.2 trillion IPO of the refinery and expanding into Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya, extending the reach of a plant that has already rewritten Nigeria’s trade balance.