KEY POINTS
- Dangote Refinery listing could lift Nigeria’s market value above $140 billion.
- Rewane says the deal would deepen liquidity and investor participation.
- Dangote Refinery listing plans include naira purchases and dollar dividends.
Nigeria’s stock market could more than double in value if Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion oil refinery lists on the Nigerian Exchange, according to economist Bismarck Rewane, highlighting the scale of what would be the country’s most consequential public offering.
Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company, said a public listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery could lift total market capitalization above N200 trillion ($140 billion), from about N105 trillion currently. Speaking at a Lagos summit over the weekend, he described the potential transaction as a structural shift for the capital market rather than a routine equity sale.
“If the Dangote Refinery listing happens at current valuations, market capitalization would rise sharply and deepen liquidity across the exchange,” Rewane said. He added that such an outcome would place Nigeria among the larger emerging-market bourses by size.
Dangote Refinery listing and market impact
The Dangote Refinery, with capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil a day, already plays a central role in reshaping Nigeria’s fuel supply and reducing imports. Rewane said bringing the asset to market would expand the investable universe for domestic pension funds and attract foreign portfolio investors seeking large, liquid African assets.
At current estimates, the refinery alone could add more value to the exchange than many existing sectors combined. Rewane, who has more than four decades of experience in banking and asset management, said the listing would improve price discovery and broaden participation in Nigeria’s equity market.
Dangote Refinery listing and IPO structure
Preparations for the initial public offering are gathering pace. David Bird, the British executive appointed chief executive officer in August 2025, said advisers, bankers and lawyers have stepped up work ahead of a planned listing window this year. “April will be extremely busy,” Bird said, pointing to an intensive pre-IPO schedule.
The offering is expected to begin with a placement to institutional investors, followed by a retail tranche that allows Nigerian households to buy shares. Dangote plans to sell between 5 percent and 10 percent of the business, while retaining a controlling stake of about 65 percent to 70 percent.
According to Billionaires Africa, to broaden appeal, the company plans to allow share purchases in naira while paying dividends in dollars. The structure draws support from projected annual export revenues of roughly $6.4 billion from petrochemical products, including polypropylene and fertilizer, according to company estimates.
