KEY POINTS

• Headline inflation rose to 15.38% in March 2026, its first increase in 12 months.
• Monthly inflation accelerated sharply, with both headline and core rates rising significantly.
• Food and core inflation declined year-on-year, but short-term price pressures remain evident.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate climbed to 15.38% in March 2026, marking the first increase in a year. This represents a 0.32 percentage point rise from the 15.06% recorded in February, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

On a month-on-month basis, inflation surged more sharply to 4.18%, compared to 2.01% in February, indicating a faster pace of price increases within the month.

Food Prices Show Mixed Trends

Food inflation stood at 14.31% year-on-year in March 2026, significantly lower than the 25.22% recorded in March 2025, reflecting some easing over the past year.

However, on a monthly basis, food inflation slowed slightly to 4.17%, down from 4.69% in February. The NBS attributed price movements to changes in key food items such as yam, ginger, cassava, tomatoes, and groundnuts.

The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending March 2026 was 18.21%, a sharp drop from 36.02% in the previous year, suggesting longer-term moderation.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural and energy prices, was 16.21% year-on-year, a notable decline from 27.12% in March 2025.

Despite this yearly improvement, the month-on-month core inflation rate jumped to 4.03%, up from 0.89% in February, indicating renewed short-term price pressures.

The 12-month average core inflation rate stood at 21.09%, down from 27.34% recorded in March 2025.